[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310536
SWODY1
SPC AC 310534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2005

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
AUS 30 NNW SAT 15 WNW JCT 15 SSW BGS 20 S TCC 55 SSE RTN 30 ESE RTN
45 N CAO 10 E EHA 30 WNW GAG 30 ENE GAG 20 SSW HUT 35 SSW OLU 20 E
OLU 15 WNW OMA 20 SSE OMA TOP 40 N PRX 45 S TYR 20 ENE CLL 30 SSW
CLL 25 SE AUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 20 WSW AXN
FOD 20 WSW IRK 25 WNW VIH 15 WSW POF 20 W HOP 45 SE BWG AVL 30 NE
FAY 20 WSW HSE ...CONT... 25 SSW P07 35 SSW INK 30 SE SAF 50 NE 4SL
25 W ALS 55 N ALS 55 ENE GUC 25 ESE ASE 15 NNE MTJ 30 ENE PUC 40 ESE
SLC 15 N OGD 55 SW MLD 40 N ENV 40 SSW EKO 25 WSW BAM 60 NNW LOL 25
ENE SVE 30 NW RNO 65 WNW BIH 35 N FAT 10 ESE SAC 35 S RBL 30 NE MHS
70 N 4LW 25 SSW PDT 50 SE EPH 15 NW YKM 15 E AST 25 NNE UIL
...CONT... 25 NNE HVR 65 ESE HVR 65 WNW MLS 20 SE MLS 40 N REJ 40
NNE Y22 35 SSE P24 50 N MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE BML 20 ENE LCI
20 SSE CON 20 SW BOS 10 SSW EWB ...CONT... 20 E NEL 30 SE CXY 20 WSW
LBE 15 NNW HLG 60 E MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY
SPREADING STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. A
MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO THE
REGION BY MIDDAY PUSHING A WEAKENING MCS EWD ACROSS OK AND KS.
FARTHER WEST...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND THE MORNING MCS
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A DRYLINE IN
PLACE ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F
EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX AND THE
LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM INITIATION NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE
LOW-ROLLING PLAINS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z TUESDAY IN THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS SHOW
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE BACKED
SFC WINDS AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES. THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS FORECAST BY
THE GFS/NAM AND NAMKF TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS NW TX DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WITH A TRANSITION TO WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE
BY THE LATE EVENING AS AN MCS ORGANIZES AND MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN MCS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS WCNTRL KS. HOW LONG
THIS MCS CAN PERSIST DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. IF PARTIAL CLEARING
CAN OCCUR...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NRN OK EXTENDING NWD INTO SE NEB.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
MULTICELL STORMS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER AND FASTER MOVING STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.

...NRN FL/SRN GA...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SRN GA
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NRN FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NRN FL BY
MID-AFTERNOON SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 05/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.