[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310031
SWODY1
SPC AC 310029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
FST 25 N INK 55 SW TCC 30 WSW PUB 30 NE DEN 50 NW AKO 25 SSW SNY 40
W IML 55 SSE GLD 10 ESE LBL 35 NNW CDS 50 ENE BGS 55 W SJT 35 NE
FST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH
RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG ...CONT...
65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N TPH 65 SSE
TVL 30 ENE SAC 15 NNE RBL MFR 25 NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S UIN 10 NNW DEC
40 N CMI 25 WSW CGX 35 NW LSE 10 WNW AXN 30 WSW JMS 20 WNW GDV 85
WNW MLS 25 N BIL 35 S BIL 35 S SHR 55 SSW PHP 10 SE OFK 15 NE STJ 40
S IRK 30 S UIN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GSB 15 E RWI 50
N RWI 45 ESE LYH PSK 55 WSW LOZ 40 E BNA 55 SSE BNA 35 W CHA 50 NNW
AHN 25 SE SPA 30 SSW SOP 25 SW GSB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND SRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE EWD
MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG ASCENT SPREADS EWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO SRN CO. SFC
DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 50S F AND THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING IN SE CO AND NE NM WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE STORMS...KEEPING THE TORNADO THREAT GOING FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO...THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE FROM ERN CO TO WEST TX WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND
GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS IN FAR ERN CO.
HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MCS ENTERS WRN KS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 

...SRN GA/FL...
AT THE SFC...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SRN GA WITH
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INLAND ACROSS ERN FL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS
MODERATE INSTABILITY PARTIALLY DUE TO 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.
THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL POSSIBLE. THE MARGINAL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS
INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/31/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.