[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 302012
SWODY1
SPC AC 302010

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE
CNY 10 W VEL 30 N VEL 45 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 45 E LIC 10 ESE LBL 30 W
GAG 20 NNE CDS 60 WNW ABI 35 SE BGS 60 SSE MAF 20 S INK 25 NNE CNM
45 NE 4CR 65 NNW LVS 30 S ALS 45 NNW DRO 30 SE CNY 40 NNE CNY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
HOU 60 E CLL 15 ENE LFK 45 N POE 30 WSW LUL 50 SSW SEM 25 ESE DHN 25
SSE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AXN 45 SW FAR
30 NE DIK 10 WNW GDV 80 WNW MLS 35 NNE BIL 35 NNE COD 45 SSE SHR 60
S PHP 10 SE OFK 30 ESE LNK 30 NNE TOP 45 NNW COU 20 N DEC 25 NNW LAF
35 WSW LNR 20 W MSP 15 WNW AXN ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG
...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N
TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SW MHS 25 NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GSB 35 NE RWI
60 SW RIC 15 SSE LYH PSK 35 N CSV 25 SSW BNA 50 NE MSL 30 E CHA 25
SE SPA 30 SSW SOP 20 WSW GSB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH
RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CO INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES
AND ERN NM...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LOW OVER NRN CA/NV ON SUNDAY HAS PHASED WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADED INTO MT FROM ELONGATED TROUGH THAT WAS
LOCKED IN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THIS HAS TAKEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX OVER THE UT/CO BORDER AT THIS TIME AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER NERN CO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER
NWRN CO WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN CA.

...CO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM AND TX...

AS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS CO THOUGH TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE DEN AREA AND STRENGTHEN AS ELY
UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS ENHANCES
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE ALREADY PRESENT ACCORDING TO 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS WITH VALUES
AROUND 7.5C/KM.  AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 55 KT
AND BRN SHEAR ABOVE 100 M2/S2. THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS GIVEN THE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LEFTOVER QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7
AND 8C/KM INDICATE THE THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...

HAVE EXPENDED LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION AS
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN -20 TO -25C ALOFT TEMPERATURES HAS RESULTED
IN INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  MANY OF THESE ARE
LOW-TOPPED STORMS CAPABLE OF PROVIDING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.