[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301619
SWODY1
SPC AC 301618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
PUC 45 NNE PUC 30 N VEL 45 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 45 E LIC 10 ESE LBL 30 W
GAG 20 NNE CDS 60 WNW ABI 35 SE BGS 60 SSE MAF 20 S INK 25 NNE CNM
45 NE 4CR 65 NNW LVS 30 S ALS 45 NNW DRO 40 SSW CNY 40 SW PUC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
HOU 60 E CLL 15 ENE LFK 45 N POE 30 WSW LUL 50 SSW SEM 25 ESE DHN 25
SSE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW AXN 45 SW FAR
30 NE DIK 10 WNW GDV 80 WNW MLS 35 NNE BIL 35 NNE COD 45 SSE SHR 20
NW CDR 25 E GRI 35 SSE BIE 30 NNE TOP 45 NNW COU 20 N DEC 25 NNW LAF
35 WSW LNR 20 W MSP 15 WNW AXN ...CONT... 55 NNE BML 35 SE AUG
...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM 10 SW ABQ 20 SW FMN 30 ENE BCE 40 N
TPH 65 SSE TVL 30 E SAC 40 SW MHS 25 NE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GSB 35 NE RWI
40 N RWI 30 E DAN 35 S PSK 35 N CSV 25 SSW BNA 50 NE MSL 30 E CHA 30
NW CAE 30 SSW SOP 20 WSW GSB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 15 E DLH
RHI 30 SE ESC 25 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GULF COASTAL STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL MT TODAY WITH A VIGOROUS S/WV
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER SERN TX WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD WITH STRONGER FLOW S OF 
UPPER LOW TO REMAIN OVER GULF.

COOL SURFACE HIGH HAS SPREAD STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR SWD THRU
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH CROSSING
ROCKIES  MOVING INTO WRN CO ATTM.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THRU ERN
UT INTO SRN NV.

CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED THE VERY MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OFF SHORE OF GULF COAST.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED 40-50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL
CROSS CO/NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE VERY FAVORABLE KINEMATICS
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  COLD ADVECTION WITH TROUGH
COUPLED WITH HEATING WILL CREATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN CO/ERN UT
FOR RATHER EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NERN UT AND WRN CO.  WITH
MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  REF MCD #1073 FOR POSSIBLE
WATCH.

CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CURRENTLY STABLE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE RIDGE.  PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASED MIXING AHEAD OF
TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DESTABILIZE
HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO SWD INTO ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG AVAILABLE.  WITH VEERING SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WIND
MAX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON OFF HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM/SERN CO.  ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL ISOLATED TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES AND
LOW LCL'S NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.

STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE MORE INTO A SEVERE MCS THIS EVENING AS
THEY PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS PLAINS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
INCREASING.

...GULF COASTAL REGIONS...
WHILE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NOW OFFSHORE...DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TX EWD TO FL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR. 
WHILE SHEAR MUCH OF GULF STATES IS RELATIVELY WEAK...A LITTLE BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT AVAILABLE WITH AND E OF WEAK UPPER LOW ERN TX FOR
POSSIBLE MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20-30KT
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER UNORGANIZED AND MULTICELLULAR.

...SERN FL...
HAVE ADDED LOW PROB'S OF SEVERE SERN FL WHERE VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS NOTED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS.  REF #1074.

...NERN U.S...

WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK UNDER E/W COLD TROUGH AXIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES FOR 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE.  PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN HIGHLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN NY/NERN PA ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.