[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301259
SWODY1
SPC AC 301258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
MAF CNM LVS 15 S COS LIC 40 W GLD GLD 15 NE GCK 45 NNW GAG 30 NW ABI
40 SE BGS 25 SSE MAF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DPG
SLC 20 SSE EVW 50 WNW CAG 50 W EGE MTJ 35 NNW CEZ 10 N U17 10 E BCE
10 E MLF 25 W U24 DPG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
DAB 25 SSE CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW GLS 45 SW LFK 35 NW POE 40 SSW JAN
TOI 35 NE ABY 25 S SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW FCA 30 SE 3DU
35 NNW WRL 30 SW CDR 30 SSE HSI 45 SW OJC 45 ESE TBN 25 E MDH 30 NNE
DNV 45 NNE ALO 15 NNW AXN 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM
10 SW ABQ 30 SSW CEZ 20 WSW BCE 30 NW ELY 30 WNW TWF 55 N BOI 40 S
BKE 80 S BNO 60 ENE SVE 40 ENE RBL 40 SW MHS 40 ENE BLI ...CONT...
45 WNW 3B1 20 NE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE ELO 50 ESE DLH
RHI 45 SE ESC 10 W ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT/CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
STATES...

...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES...
PREFER FASTER GFS SOLUTION OF LOWER AND MID LEVEL CYCLONE
... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TX...MOVING EWD INTO MS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. EVOLUTION OF SEVERE THREAT AND COVERAGE IS COMPLICATED
BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE NRN AND WRN GULF
THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION CLUSTER...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SRN MS/SERN LA..TO MOVE EWD TROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL
REGION WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT
30-40 KT SHOULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION. BIGGEST CONCERN IS
DENSE CLOUD CANOPY THAT COVERS AREA FROM GULF OF MEXICO CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION SOUTH OF AL/FL PANHANDLE HAS
DECREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. LOW END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
EXISTS FROM SERN LA/SRN MS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SWRN AL/FL PANHANDLE AS WEAKENING CONVECTION/ THINNING CLOUDS ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT AS
LINE MOVES EWD. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO SRN GA WHERE MORE HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELEVATED STORMS WITH
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN TX/SRN LA AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EWD.

...UT/WRN CO...
AS A SMALL...BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW...LOCATED NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER
SWEEPS EWD TODAY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE ROTATION IN
STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IN WRN UT WILL BE HAIL.
HOWEVER..AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EWD...STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW NEAR THE UT/NV BORDER IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
SHIFTS EWD...SHARP TROUGH ALOFT WITH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SERN
WY SWD INTO CENTRAL NM BY 00Z. THOUGH STRONG LIFT IS FORECAST ACROSS
SERN WY/NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A COOL MOIST NELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS. CLOUDS ALSO COVER SERN CO/ERN NM THIS
MORNING...BUT A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKER UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
AID IN SOME SUNSHINE/HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. IF MLCAPES CAN REACH
1500-2000 J/KG AS DEPICTED BY MODELS...THEN 30-40KT MID LEVEL WINDS
AND STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
INITIALLY...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY
ALSO SUPPORT TORNADOES.  THE STORM DOWNDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP A COLD POOL THIS
EVENING...WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT IN EXTREME SWRN KS AND
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

...ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FROM ACROSS NRN VA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  AT
THE SFC...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND
INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY PROVIDE A FEW WIND/HAIL EVENTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..IMY/CROSBIE.. 05/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.