[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300545
SWODY1
SPC AC 300543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2005

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
MAF 20 SSW HOB 30 NW RTN 25 W COS 30 NE DEN 25 ENE AKO 25 NNE GLD 60
N GCK 45 NNW GAG 30 NW ABI 40 SE BGS 20 SSE MAF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
GLS 30 WNW BPT 30 WNW POE 40 SSW JAN 30 WSW TOI 20 SSW DHN 10 SE
PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MRF 50 ESE ALM
10 SSW ABQ 75 SE PGA 50 SSE ELY 30 WNW TWF 55 N BOI 40 S BKE 80 S
BNO 60 ENE SVE 40 ENE RBL 30 WNW MHS 40 NE BLI ...CONT... 90 NW FCA
30 SE 3DU 35 NNW WRL 30 SW CDR 25 NW LBF HSI 35 SSW FNB 35 W JEF 10
SW MTO 40 NNW DNV 45 NNE ALO 40 ENE ABR 50 ENE BIS 65 NNE ISN
...CONT... 45 NW 3B1 10 W BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND HIGH PLAINS...

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES...
A BROAD UPPER-LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SCNTRL US WILL SLIDE EWD TODAY
SPREADING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. AT THE SFC...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY EXTEND EWD FROM A LOW
IN ERN TX/LA EWD ACROSS CNTRL MS...CNTRL AL INTO GA. AN MCS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS LA AND MS. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION WHICH COULD IMPEDE SFC HEATING. WHERE SKIES PARTIALLY
CLEAR...THE MID 60 TO MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON IN SRN MS...SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR. AS THE MCS SPREADS EWD DURING THE DAY...THE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH NEW STORMS THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE MCS ONGOING NOW IN SE TX AND SRN LA. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THE 0-1 KM SHEAR
ENHANCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
LARGE MCS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD CAUSE THE INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT
TO DECREASE BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS/CO HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER NV WILL OPEN AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONG LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVECTION WILL INITIATE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND MIDDAY SPREADING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE CO
SHOW SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES...COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL
STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN CO AND NE NM. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH FASTER
MOVING STORMS. AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN KS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

...ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO ERN NY...ERN PA EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS VA. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S F LIKELY RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. SFC
HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
IN THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY AFTERNOON. A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY NEAR LOCALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE MODERATE SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT FORECAST
TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.