[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300117
SWODY1
SPC AC 300116

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
NIR 35 NW NIR 15 E SAT 35 NNE CLL 25 SW LFK 45 NNW BPT 30 W BPT 35 E
NIR 15 WSW NIR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE
CVS 20 SSE TCC 35 SE LVS 40 SW RTN 30 WNW TAD LHX GCK 15 SSE DDC 50
NNE GAG 15 S GAG 50 ENE AMA 55 NE CVS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
BYI 20 SE TWF 30 NW TWF 25 WSW SUN 35 ENE SUN IDA 55 SE IDA 35 E MLD
40 SE BYI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
P07 25 WNW P07 10 SSE FST 40 ENE FST 30 SSE BWD 45 S DAL 10 SE TYR
45 SE SHV 40 SSE MLU 40 ENE JAN 15 E SEM 20 NE TOI 25 N DHN 20 SE
DHN PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 3B1 25 SSW BHB
...CONT... 10 ENE ACY 10 NNE IPT 15 SSE JHW 15 NNE YNG 10 N UNI 30 N
LEX 15 NNW EVV 20 E MDH 20 E CGI 30 SSW PAH BNA 25 SW HKY 30 NNW FLO
10 ENE CRE ...CONT... 45 SSE FMY AGR 35 SSE GNV 20 W CTY ...CONT...
20 SSE FHU 35 NW SOW 20 S U17 30 WSW 4HV 20 SW U24 40 NNW ELY 55 SE
4LW 60 NNW 4LW 30 N RDM 60 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 50
E S80 50 WSW COD 25 E CPR 35 ESE AIA 35 NNW GRI 45 WNW DSM 30 W ALO
35 WSW RST 30 NNE RWF 15 N BIS 75 NNE OLF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX COASTAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SD ID...

...GULF COAST STATES...
RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TX WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EAST TX EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES. A VORT MAX ANALYZED OVER WCNTRL TX
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE REGION PROVIDING STRONG ASCENT
TO CONTINUE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NE TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS
NRN LA...CNTRL MS AND SRN AL. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS
OF 65 TO 75 F ARE CREATING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION...PROFILERS IN SE TX AND LA SHOW 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE A
SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE A TORNADO THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY DROP OFF SOME...THE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES
EWD. THE MCS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAINS SHOULD
SPREAD EWD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS LA REACHING SRN MS
LATE TONIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SE CO EXTENDING
EWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO MO. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE NEW STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS HOWEVER...A FEW MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DUE TO
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE.

...SRN ID/NW UT/NE NV...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LOW OVER NRN NV WITH
STRONG ASCENT SPREADING NWD ACROSS NRN NV INTO SRN ID. THIS WILL
SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION WHICH WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS SERN ID. DUE
TO SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE BY
LATE EVENING...DIMINISHING THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 05/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.