[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291650
SWODY1
SPC AC 291649

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
GLS 25 SW PSX 10 N ALI 30 ESE COT 10 SE HDO 55 W AUS 40 WSW TPL 10 E
TPL 45 SW LFK 55 S LFK 15 NNE GLS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
EVW 35 NNW PUC 50 ESE U24 20 ENE MLF 30 W MLF 30 SE ELY 35 NNE ELY
45 W ENV 50 NW ENV 50 SSW TWF 35 NNW TWF 25 E SUN 30 NNW PIH 45 SE
IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 30 SE EVW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 45
E AMA 50 SW AMA 35 SW TCC 20 NNE LVS 15 NE ALS 50 WSW COS 20 NW COS
25 SSE LIC 50 SSE GLD 40 NNW CNK 40 SSE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25
N COU 30 ESE MKC 30 WSW ICT GAG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW
COT 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO TCL 30 W AUO 25
NNW DHN 20 WNW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 45 WNW FLG
40 ESE SGU LOL 35 WNW SVE 15 WNW LMT 25 ESE SLE OLM 15 NE BLI
...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 15 NE LWS 55 WSW MSO 50 W GTF 30 E GTF
30 WNW LWT 50 ESE LWT 45 NE SHR 50 N DGW AIA 15 ESE BBW 25 S OLU 30
ENE OMA 20 ESE MCW 20 ESE MKT 60 SW FAR 20 SE P24 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 20 E BHB
...CONT... 10 S ACY 20 ESE HGR 20 NNW MGW 35 NE ZZV 20 N CMH 30 NNW
LEX 10 SW SDF 10 ESE EVV 25 NNW HOP 25 NNW BNA 20 SSE CSV 35 NW AND
40 SE CAE 30 E CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 30 SSE GNV
20 W CTY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SERN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN ID INTO CENTRAL UT...

...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED COLD TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED MID/UPR
LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN CA.  THIS LEAVES A CONTINUED BLOCKING LIKE
PATTERN OVER THE NRN U.S.  MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT BASICALLY REACHED FROM SERN CO THRU
NRN MO AND CENTRAL IL INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS ZONAL ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO ELONGATED NATURE OF THE
BLOCK ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES.  PREVIOUS DAYS OF CONVECTION
HAVE LEFT A COLLECTION OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARIES ACROSS TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY.  WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EWD TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH THE
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FOR AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
AREAS. NAM MODEL TAKES NRN CA LOW AND MOVES IT SLOWLY ESEWD TOWARDS
SWRN UT.  THE NAMKF HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE AS THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES TOWARDS UT AND THEN BREAKS OFF THE WRN PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH AND RETROGRADE IT INTO MT.  IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS
LIKE WITH HEATING THE APPROACHING FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITIES IN ASSOCIATION WITH QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM SERN CO NEWD INTO NRN MO.  OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...
MODELS DEPICTED SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD
ENHANCING UVVS IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET.  LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW OVER SERN/E CENTRAL CO AND MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM S
CENTRAL KS ENEWD INTO W CENTRAL MO.  THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...SRN AREAS OF TX EWD THRU THE LWR MS VLY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...


LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH 12Z RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ASSOCD VORTICITY MAX OVER W CENTRAL TX IN THE
MAF-ABI-SJT VICINITY.  SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS WAVE...AIR MASS IS
DESTABILIZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF
TX...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
AN MCS DURING THE NIGHT.  LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN THE 12Z NAM MODEL.  THUS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF TX
WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.  WOULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA AS BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 60 M2/S2 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN NV THRU THE
PERIOD.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
SRN PARTS OF ID SWWD INTO ERN NV/WRN UT.  STEEP LAPSE RATES MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5C/KM INDICATES MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.