[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291956
SWODY1
SPC AC 291954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
HOU 20 SE VCT 10 ESE NIR 35 NE COT HDO 55 W AUS 40 WSW TPL 50 E ACT
15 SW LFK 40 NW BPT 25 ENE HOU.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
EVW 35 WNW PUC 50 ESE U24 20 NE MLF 50 WNW MLF 20 N ELY 10 SSE EKO
15 NE OWY 60 NNW OWY 45 E BOI 35 NE SUN 40 WNW IDA 45 SW JAC 55 SSW
JAC 45 N EVW 30 S EVW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GAG 45
E AMA 50 SW AMA 35 SW TCC 20 NNE LVS 15 NE ALS 50 WSW COS 25 NW COS
20 NNE LHX 55 NNW GCK 35 NNW CNK 40 SSE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE UIN 25
N COU 30 ESE MKC 30 WSW ICT GAG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
MRF 55 E P07 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD GWO 35 SSE CBM 30
WSW AUO 40 NNE DHN 20 ESE DHN PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SSE GBN 45 WNW FLG
40 ESE SGU LOL 35 WNW SVE 15 WNW LMT 25 ESE SLE OLM 15 NE BLI
...CONT... 50 NE 4OM 35 W GEG 15 NE LWS 55 WSW MSO 50 W GTF 30 E GTF
30 WNW LWT 50 ESE LWT 45 NE SHR 50 N DGW AIA 15 ESE BBW 25 S OLU 30
ENE OMA 20 ESE MCW 20 ESE MKT 60 SW FAR 20 SE P24 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 20 E BHB
...CONT... 10 S ACY 20 ESE HGR 20 NNW MGW 35 NE ZZV 20 N CMH 30 NNW
LEX 10 SW SDF 10 ESE EVV 25 NNW HOP 25 NNW BNA 20 SSE CSV 35 NW AND
40 SE CAE 30 E CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE FMY 30 SSE GNV
20 W CTY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST/PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE DEEP
S...

...S AND E TX...
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SURGE INLAND IN WAKE OF
OVERNIGHT MCS WITH 70-75F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST
WWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER FROM MORNING
MCS AND STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SECONDARY VORT MAX ROTATING NEWD VCNTY
BIG BEND AND THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN TX THIS EVENING.  TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE MEXICAN MTNS THROUGH THIS
AFTN/EVENING.  

12Z MEXICAN RAOBS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST 30-35KT H5 FLOW WAS WRAPPING
NEWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE AND GIVEN SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS.  VERY LARGE
HAIL MAY RESULT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  MOREOVER... ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK.  

IT APPEARS THAT ONE OR MORE MCS WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING.  ONE
PERHAPS MAY CONGEAL OVER THE MID-UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE EWD INTO
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CLIPPING SRN LA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  ANOTHER TSTM CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP ESEWD OFF
THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTO SCNTRL/DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT.  BOTH
CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS...
A COOL SURGE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STALLED OVER SERN CO THIS
AFTN WITH MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE SERN CO MTNS.  WEAKER UPSLOPE
FLOW EXISTS ACROSS NERN NM...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE PLAINS IS
HEATING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN
RECENT DAYS...THOUGH IT REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR PERHAPS A
SUPERCELL OR TWO.  PRIND THAT TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS
SERN CO AND THE RATON MESA NERN NM WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.  TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A
DAMAGING WIND GUST.  THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH PERHAPS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS EVOLVING SWD THROUGH
THE TX/OK PNHDLS OVERNIGHT.  OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS
LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND MONDAY WILL HAVE A MUCH HIGHER
POTENTIAL.  

...DEEP S...
H5 VORT MAX CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE MS DELTA REGION WITH AN
EXPANSIVE TSTM CLUSTER WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
ERN MS.  NRN PERIPHERY OF THE TSTMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NEWD ATOP A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DROPPING SWD FROM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE TN VLY.  BUT...SRN PORTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE EWD ALONG AN
AXIS OF MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS SRN AL AND THE EXTREME WRN FL
PNHDL THROUGH THIS EVE.  A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND
WITH EWD EXTENT.

...NRN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN NV UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS FROM ERN NV AND SRN ID
INTO NRN UT THROUGH EVENING.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AOA 45 KTS WILL
ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.  RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES.

..RACY.. 05/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.