[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291249
SWODY1
SPC AC 291247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW
COT 30 S JCT 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO TCL 30 W AUO 25
NNW DHN 20 WNW PFN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW
CSM 35 W CDS 40 ESE CVS 35 SW TCC 45 WSW RTN 15 NE ALS 50 ESE ASE 25
SW DEN 25 SSE LIC 25 SE GLD 40 NNW CNK 25 SE OMA 30 NNW BRL 35 ESE
UIN 25 N COU 30 ESE MKC 40 SE P28 10 SW CSM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
EVW 50 NW PUC 25 ENE MLF 45 NNE P38 70 NW P38 70 SE U31 50 ESE U31
55 S EKO 50 NW ENV 55 SSE TWF 10 SW BYI 45 NNE BYI 30 NNW PIH 45 SE
IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 35 SSW EVW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS 25 SSW FLG
30 NW GCN CDC 35 E TPH 30 SE SVE 50 SE MHS 45 SSW MFR 40 NW MFR 25
SSW PDX 30 ENE BLI ...CONT... 85 WNW FCA 30 SSW 3DU 15 WSW DGW 25
WNW MHN 30 E BUB 45 SE SUX 30 SSW FRM 20 N RWF 35 NNE ABR 60 NNE GGW
...CONT... 25 SE NEL 35 NNE HGR 30 E DAY 30 N SDF 30 NNE BWG 40 ESE
BNA 25 E AND 15 SW CRE ...CONT... 60 WSW MIA 30 W AGR 55 WNW ORL 35
WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
NRN MEXICO...AND ARE FOCUSING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MS/AL AND
ERN TX EARLY THIS MORNING.  SURFACE FRONT REMAINS WELL DEFINED AT
12Z FROM SRN AL WWD INTO ERN TX...WITH A VERY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS TO
ITS SOUTH.  APPEARS STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL BE PREVALENT AHEAD
OF SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ERN TX TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EVIDENT
ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER LA INTO SRN MS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT AS AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED. INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY THE MID MORNING AS LCH SOUNDING
INDICATES A CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE UPPER 70S /REFERENCE SWOMCD
1050/. SHEAR WILL BE MODEST...YET STILL SUFFICIENT...FOR SUPERCELLS
ALONG WITH ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE MCS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS 1500-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE.  MODERATE SHEAR AND E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT MAY FOCUS
POSSIBLE BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS SEVERE THREAT
SPREADS ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME CAP AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND OTHER SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN TX BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.  SHEAR REMAINS
RESPECTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION UNDER 25-35 KT SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...SUGGESTING CLUSTERS/LINES OF SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN SPREAD TOWARDS THE TX COAST WITH THE
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MO WWD INTO E-CENTRAL CO WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY SWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY
TODAY. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT AN AXIS OF
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP FROM SERN CO/WRN KS
INTO MO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE MARGINAL SURFACE
MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG
UNDER 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE FRONT AND WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIME THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH
GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER WRN PORTION OF OUTLOOK REGION.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STRONG...COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS NV THIS
MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LIKELY EXTENDING FROM
SRN/ERN ID SWD ACROSS WRN UT BY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  VERY STRONG WINDS/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO AID IN ORGANIZATION INTO LINES AND SUPERCELLS...WITH PRIMARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.