[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290538
SWODY1
SPC AC 290536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW
COT 45 N HDO 35 SE BWD 40 NW TYR 30 W ELD 10 SSE GWO 20 SSW TCL 15
SW MGM 30 S TOI 20 WNW PFN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE
CSM 35 W CDS 40 ESE CVS 35 SW TCC 45 WSW RTN 15 NE ALS 50 ESE GUC 50
ESE ASE 30 SW DEN 20 NNE COS 30 ENE PUB LAA 55 ESE GLD 40 NNW CNK 25
SE OMA 30 ENE OTM 30 NNW PIA 25 E BMI 15 ENE MTO 20 NNE SLO 15 N STL
50 WNW STL 10 NNW COU 10 WNW SZL 35 N BVO 30 E END 15 SSE CSM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
EVW 50 NW PUC 25 ENE MLF 45 NNE P38 70 NW P38 70 SE U31 50 ESE U31
55 S EKO 50 NW ENV 55 SSE TWF 10 SW BYI 45 NNE BYI 30 NNW PIH 45 SE
IDA 55 SSW JAC 45 N EVW 35 SSW EVW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DOV 10 NNE MRB
ZZV 30 N LEX 35 NE BWG 45 E BNA 20 ESE AHN 10 SSE CHS ...CONT... 55
SSE FMY 30 NW AGR 55 S GNV 20 WNW CTY ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 15 W FLG
35 ESE TPH 50 SE MHS 40 S MFR 35 NNW MFR 25 SSW PDX 30 ENE BLI
...CONT... 85 WNW FCA 30 SSW 3DU 55 NW CDR 20 W MHN 40 ENE BUB 25
ESE SUX 25 ESE OTG 40 NE BKX 50 WNW ABR 60 NNE GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NV...NWRN
UT...AND SERN ID...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS/ROCKIES TO KS/MO AND THE MID MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/SERN TX ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX MULTI-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS ON
SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS SYNOPTIC AND SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS
DRIVING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE WEST...A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS ESEWD ACROSS NRN NV DURING THE DAY
WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-60M PER 12 HOURS SPREADING OVER THE
SALT LAKE VLY BY EVENING.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM...A WEAKER LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE ELONGATED TROUGH
AXIS...SITUATED WEST-TO-EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND. SFC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT SSEWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND BACK WWD/SWWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A BROAD SRN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO NRN MEXICO AND S
TX MAY BE THE MOST COMPLEX SYSTEM OF ALL. THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH
CONTAINS A NUMBER OF SMALLER...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED... PERTURBATIONS
WHICH ARE NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. PRIMARY FEATURES OF
INTEREST AND CONCERN WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF
ONGOING/MORNING CONVECTION...AND A BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW
/35-40KT AT 500MB/ EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE LWR RIO GRANDE...EWD
ACROSS THE NWRN AND NCNTRL GULF COAST.

...ERN NV/NWRN UT/SERN ID...
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN DIFFLUENT CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID/UPPER
JET STREAK WILL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS NV/UT AND ID DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY 30-45KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ROTATING/ORGANIZED STORMS. IN
ADDITION TO HAIL...HIGH-BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS AND DCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL FAVOR STRONG DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VLY...
LIFT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
IMPINGE ON LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS FROM SERN CO ACROSS KS/MO BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND PROMOTE PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL ALSO SPUR
HIGHER TERRAIN TSTMS ACROSS SRN CO AND NERN NM AT THE SAME TIME.
STRONGLY BACKED POST-FRONTAL AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SERN CO WILL
SUPPORT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FROM ANY DISCRETE CELLS INITIATING NEAR OR ON THE BOUNDARY. WIND
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE WITH TIME IF LARGER SCALE LINEAR MCS EVOLVES
ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVOLUTION MAY
OCCUR OVER SERN CO AND THEN SPREAD TO THE TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

...GULF COAST/LWR MS VLY...
A LARGE LOW-PROBABILITY SLGT RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGIONS
GIVEN HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS S TX. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF INTENSE SMALL SCALE TSTM
CLUSTERS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
ACTIVITY...LIKELY LINKED TO MID LEVEL IMPULSE/WIND MAX MAY CONTINUE
TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT DEVELOPS EAST INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.

GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SUBSIDENCE/HEATING 
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE...AIR MASS ACROSS S TX WILL
LIKELY BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. OTHER MINOR MID
LEVEL IMPULSES WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH...COUPLED WITH RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES...WILL PROBABLY AID RENEWED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VLY AND TX/LA GULF COAST AREA BENEATH BAND OF
FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH STORMS OF MORE MULTICELL CHARACTER POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER
INLAND/NWWD. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...A COUPLE
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY.

...NORTHEAST...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...PERSISTENT BACKGROUND ASCENT WITHIN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AXIS...AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN NUMEROUS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN PA
TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES...
WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN BROAD TROUGH AXIS AND HEATING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG/BRIEF OUTFLOWS AND/OR HAIL.

..CARBIN/CROSBIE.. 05/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.