[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 290109
SWODY1
SPC AC 290107

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
P07 40 WSW SJT 25 SW ABI 45 ENE ABI 25 SSW DAL 20 W TYR 15 ENE GGG
25 NNE SHV 40 NNE MLU 40 NNW JAN 20 S JAN 10 S MCB LCH 15 NW HOU 30
W VCT 35 WNW ALI 25 SE LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE JAX 20 SE VLD
20 SE PFN ...CONT... 60 WSW TUS 10 NNE PHX 40 ESE IGM 25 SSW SGU 50
SSW ELY 25 SSW U31 75 NNW LOL 55 E MHS 45 SSE MHS 40 SSW MHS 35 SE
CEC 20 SSW OTH ...CONT... 20 N AST 25 SE OLM 45 ESE YKM 40 SE ALW 60
SW MSO 15 SSE 3DU 40 E LVM SHR 50 ESE WRL 30 E RIW 30 ENE BPI 40 WSW
BPI 30 N EVW 40 S EVW 25 N PUC 30 ESE PUC 25 NE CNY 15 SSE GJT 30 W
ASE 10 NNE EGE 45 WNW 4FC 25 W FCL 15 ENE DEN 35 W AKO 40 ESE CYS 25
NW CYS 35 N LAR 20 SSE CPR 25 NNW DGW 50 W CDR 25 E CDR 35 WNW VTN
50 SSE 9V9 45 NNE SUX 40 NNW OTM 20 ESE IRK 40 SSW STL 55 SE VIH 15
SSW CNU 20 NNW ICT 45 N P28 10 SE DDC LBL 40 SSW EHA 20 W DHT 20 N
TCC 65 SW TCC 40 SE 4CR 55 ESE ALM 10 WSW CNM 20 ENE CNM 35 N HOB 30
WNW LBB 20 NNE PVW 40 W CSM 30 SSW END 25 SW TUL 50 N HOT 50 NE PBF
45 ENE GWO 40 E 0A8 15 NNW MCN 45 WSW CHS 20 WSW ILM 30 N HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N EFK 10 ESE PWM
...CONT... JFK 35 NW MSV 45 SW SLK 35 WSW MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BUF 20 E AOO 10
NW CHO 20 W BLF 25 W LEX 30 SW LUK 10 NNW FDY 10 WNW LAN 40 SE MTW
25 NW OSH AUW 15 NNW RHI 35 WSW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE MIA 45 WNW MIA
15 SW AGR 10 SE ORL 15 SE DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S TX TO LWR MS VLY...

...S TX TO LWR MS VLY...
A NUMBER OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE BEING SUSTAINED
BY SUBTLE STN STREAM IMPULSES ACTING ON HIGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LWR RIO GRANDE VLY AND SERN TX THIS EVENING. THE LEADING CLUSTER WAS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NERN LA/SERN AR WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY BUT
SUFFICIENT SHEAR COULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL/WIND AS THE SMALL
MCS CROSSES THE MS RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

A MORE INTENSE UPSTREAM COMPLEX...CURRENTLY WITHIN WATCH 342 OVER
SERN TX...WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE
NOSE OF A MID LEVEL JET STREAK...WITH POSSIBLE MCV ORIGINS. THE MID 
LEVEL IMPULSE HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL ASCENT ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
ZONE SITUATED FROM CNTRL LA WWD TO THE LWR PECOS VLY.

OTHER WEAKLY ORGANIZED BOWING COMPLEXES OF DEEP CONVECTION WERE 
MOVING EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS S TX. ONE WAS MOVING
ACROSS WATCH 343...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY. THE OTHER COMPLEX WAS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE FROM MEXICO.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT THAT
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO...EXPECT SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF S TX.

...ORE TO NRN GREAT BASIN/SWRN ID...
COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NRN CA WITH
PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACTING ON UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FROM SRN/SERN ORE ACROSS ID AND NRN NV. WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS
CONVECTION EXISTS IN AN ARC AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE POCKETS OF
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PERSISTENT ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING SLOPED ASCENT WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN CO ACROSS NEB/KS THROUGH TONIGHT. DESPITE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR...LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL. NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AS FRONTAL FORCING
AND LLJ STRENGTHEN ACROSS THESE AREAS. A FEW STORMS WITHE GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 05/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.