[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281646
SWODY1
SPC AC 281644

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE
35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
CRE FAY RWI 55 ESE LYH 25 S CHO 45 SSW MRB 10 ESE MRB 10 ENE CXY 20
ENE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 15 WNW DEN SNY 35 WNW
OFK 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 40 NNW SZL 10 SE FLV 50 NE DDC 35
SSW LBL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 50
SSE S80 25 NW BTM 35 N BIL 45 WSW MBG 20 ENE ABR 10 S FAR 35 W RRT
...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV
40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 25
SW EED 15 WNW BIH 15 SW TVL 55 SE EKA 35 SSW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 15 NNE TBN
15 ESE HRO 50 NE LIT 20 SSE MEM 15 SE MSL 25 NW RMG 35 NW AND 10 WNW
CLT GSO ROA BKW 20 NNW JKL 25 SSE SDF 45 WSW EVV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NRN CA INTO OREGON...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY ABNORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES WITH BROAD
ELONGATED COLD VORTEX EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND.  IN ADDITION...NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE
CA/OR COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
HALF OF THE PERIOD.  MOST NOTICEABLE ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
IS  THAT THIS PATTERN HAS LEFT 60F DEW POINTS MOSTLY S OF 35N. THIS
LEAVES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MS AND OH VALLEY AREAS AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DURING THE PERIOD. 
THUS...CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS TO BE LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD.

...DELMARVA AREA SWD INTO ERN NC...

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER S CENTRAL PA WITH WEAK
ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH ERN VA INTO NRN GA.  LATEST
LIGHTING DETECTION LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW
NEAR THE D.C. AREA AND OVER COASTAL AREAS OF SERN VA INTO THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE.  ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOWS
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE
RATES JUST BELOW 8C/KM AND DCAPE JUST BELOW 600 J/KG.  THUS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

LOWER PROBABILITIES EXTEND WWD INTO OHIO WHERE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NEAR 7C/KM.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

MODELS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SERN CO INTO W CENTRAL MO.  SREF MODELS SEEM TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS KS
AND PARTS OF NEB IN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN FAVORABLE
ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL POLAR JET.  GIVEN LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED MCS
FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CO THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.  ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.

...PARTS OF OREGON AND CA...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING INTO NWRN CA IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE BETWEEN -15C AND -20C LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  TIGHT CYCLONIC HORIZONTAL SHEAR SUGGESTS
THE SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT GIVEN SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST HAIL TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.