[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281228
SWODY1
SPC AC 281226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE
35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CRE 35 SSW SOP 55 NNW RWI 55 ESE LYH 25 S CHO 25 SW EKN 15 E MGW 10
WSW AOO 15 E NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S
MRF 50 WNW FST 10 NW INK 20 NNE MAF 10 ESE SJT 10 N JCT 50 WNW HDO
40 SE DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 15 WNW DEN 45 WNW AKO
20 WNW OLU 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK 40 NNW SZL 10 SE FLV 50 NE
DDC 35 SSW LBL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GBN 10 WSW IGM
15 WNW BIH 15 SW TVL 55 SE EKA 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 35 E BLI YKM 15
S PDT 50 SSE S80 25 NW BTM 35 N BIL 45 WSW MBG 25 NNW ABR 30 NNW FAR
75 N GFK ...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW
ORL 15 WNW GNV 35 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MVN 15 SSW TBN
10 SW HRO 55 SW JBR 55 E MKL 25 NW CSV 60 SW LEX 45 WSW SDF 15 S
MVN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH RIVER
VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL
OREGON...

...OH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION
WITHIN BROAD WLY FLOW REGIME.  HOWEVER...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL INCREASE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM AS IT MOVES QUICKLY EWD TODAY. THIS MAY
FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR WV/MD PANHANDLE REGION. 
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL HINDER INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL MLCAPE
ATOP STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR UNDER
70+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET...THIS MAY PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO
SMALL LINES OR BRIEF SUPERCELLS.  ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD QUICKLY EWD AND OFF THE COAST BY THE EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO NRN MO...
AIR MASS REMAINS UNSEASONABLY DRY OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. 
HOWEVER...PLUME OF LOWER/MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  THIS REGION WILL ALSO
EXPERIENCE STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY AND ALLOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP UNDER WITHIN 35-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC ANALYSES NEARING
NWRN CO IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL/ERN CO AND FAR NRN NM
DURING PEAK HEATING.  THIS MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR CONVERGENCE AXES OVER ERN CO PLAINS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND SHEAR FORECAST OVER
THE REGION SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. 
LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2" IN DIAMETER...WILL BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS HIGH LCLS LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL AWAY FROM
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA.  SHOULD STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES...
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE INTO THE EVENING.

EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE SHOULD
INCREASE NEAR WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING E-W INTO SRN NEB/NRN
KS...WHERE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP.  THOUGH ISOLATED
STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL DUE
TO RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.  STILL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
HEATING/CONVERGENCE OVERCOME CAPPING.

HIGH PLAINS STORMS MAY BUILD UPSCALE INTO AN MCS DURING THE
EVENING...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL MCS DEVELOPS ALONG AND NORTH OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE ELEVATED STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EWD
ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS AND INTO NRN MO OVERNIGHT.

...WRN/CENTRAL ORE...
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER ORE TODAY...AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW APPROACHING
THE COAST.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY...AS
OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...AS UPPER LOW NEARS.  THUS...STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.  GIVEN
EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...TX...
EXTENSIVE MCS/MCC NOW EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL TX APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING NEWD AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE EJECTING AWAY FROM
LARGER UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO.  THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE
TROUBLE DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS THESE STORMS
SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY.

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OVER THIS REGION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THESE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING/MOISTURE CAN OCCUR OVER SWRN TX.  LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER STEEP ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
SUSTAINING MODERATE SHEAR.  SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE INTO THE BIG
BEND REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SWRN TX...A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.