[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 282009
SWODY1
SPC AC 282007

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE
35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
LBL 10 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 55 WSW COS 10 NNW DEN SNY BBW 25
SW OLU 30 ENE BIE 25 NNW TOP 15 SSW MHK 50 NE DDC 35 SSW LBL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
ACY 20 SW TTN 25 ENE ABE 20 N JFK 20 E JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE BLI YKM PDT 35
ESE S80 35 NE 3DU 20 ENE LWT 50 ENE Y22 65 N ATY 30 ENE FAR 65 N GFK
...CONT... 40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL GNV
40 ESE VLD 10 ESE MGR 30 SE MAI 10 ENE AQQ ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 10
NW DRA 60 SW U31 20 S RNO 35 NE UKI 35 SSW EKA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW EVV 60 NNW POF
30 SSW UNO 55 NE LIT UOX 35 WNW BHM 25 ESE ATL 50 SE AND 20 ENE RDU
40 SSW RIC 40 SSE CHO 15 SW SSU 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW EVV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO/NM INTO NRN KS/SRN
NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN CA AND ORE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NJ...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN CO AS
ELONGATED TROUGH SAGS SWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.  STRONG
SUNSHINE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES TO STEEPEN TO THE POINT THAT CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING
ALONG FOCUSED CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE...NEWD INTO
SCNTRL NEB WHERE WEAK WARM ADVECTION HAS AIDED SCATTERED CONVECTION
OFF AND ON DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  FAVORABLE INFLOW INTO THIS
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH STRONG VEERING PROFILES SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING. 
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLUSTERING/OUTFLOW
FORCE CONVECTION INTO A MORE LINEAR MODE THAT WILL SAG SEWD INTO
DEVELOPING LLJ OVER WRN KS.

FARTHER SOUTH...REMNANTS OF FRI NIGHT MCS HAS MOVED INTO FAR WEST TX
ALONG NM BORDER...JUST NW OF MAF.  HEATING ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO THE PECOS REGION APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT UPWARD
TRENDS IN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM NEAR MAF...SWWD TO
EAST OF MRF.  WITH STRONGEST FLOW/INSTABILITY OBSERVED FARTHER SOUTH
 IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

DOWNSTREAM...WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT/CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIFTING
ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX TOWARD THE ARK/LA/TEX WITH SEVERAL ARCING
BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...SEWD ALONG
THE SABINE RIVER.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES STRONGEST AXIS
OF INSTABILITY FROM SERN TX TO CNTRL MS...ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP.  RESULTANT UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH THESE BAND OF STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ENEWD
ACROSS LA INTO MS LATER TONIGHT.

...OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

MULTIPLE N-S WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONES ARE TRAVERSING EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...NORTH OF
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS.  LOCAL PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG THESE ZONES. THE LEADING
ZONE OF CONVECTION IS NOW SPREADING ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCE IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT ROUGHLY 500 J/KG CAPE.  UPDRAFTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
MAINTAIN LIGHTNING WITH THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...BUT GUSTY WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S.

FARTHER WEST...SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS
CNTRL OH WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS BEFORE IT WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING OVER WRN PA.

...NRN CA/ORE...

WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW IS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE ORE/CA COAST. 
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS
CIRCULATION...LIGHTNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. 
WITH TIME HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING WILL AID STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET.  VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
INSTABILITY IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SCNTRL ORE. 
LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.

..DARROW.. 05/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.