[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280552
SWODY1
SPC AC 280550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
ILM 40 WSW SOP 35 E HKY 40 ENE TRI 15 E JKL 55 ESE LUK 20 S CMH 30 E
ZZV 25 N MGW 15 NNE HGR 15 SSE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
DDC 20 SE EHA 30 NE TCC 35 S LVS 10 ENE SAF 50 SSE ALS 10 WNW LHX 55
N LAA 25 NW GLD 20 S BBW 20 WNW OLU 40 ENE OMA 25 NNE LWD 15 S IRK
15 N COU 25 SW JEF 55 SSW SZL 35 ENE CNU 15 SW EMP SLN 10 SE RSL 30
NNE DDC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
MRF 20 W INK 10 NE HOB 45 ESE LBB 65 SSE CDS 45 SE SPS DAL 35 NE ACT
20 NW TPL 55 W TPL 40 WNW JCT 10 N P07 35 E MRF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
ONP PDX 25 NNW DLS 50 S PDT 40 SE BNO 50 E 4LW 55 NE SVE 25 WNW SVE
35 NNE RBL 40 SW MHS 45 NE ACV 15 E 4BK 35 SE OTH 25 E ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE YUM 30 ESE EED
70 N DRA 30 E TVL 55 SE EKA 20 SSE CEC ...CONT... 35 E BLI YKM 15 S
PDT 25 WNW SUN 20 S 3HT 15 ENE BIL 25 S SHR 20 S LND 35 SSW RWL 35
SSW BFF 30 SW ANW 30 NE MHE 15 SW STC 35 NNE BRD 65 W RRT ...CONT...
40 N BML 25 SE AUG ...CONT... 30 NNW FMY 35 WSW ORL 15 WNW GNV 35 SE
TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S MVN 15 SSW TBN
40 SSW UNO 55 SW JBR 55 E MKL 25 NW CSV 60 SW LEX 45 WSW SDF 15 S
MVN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH
VLY EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SW AND CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM/SERN CO ACROSS
KS/SRN NEB TO MO/IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN CA AND WRN
ORE...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX MULTI-STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN
STATES AND SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A BELT OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW LADEN WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES WILL REMAIN
POSITIONED FROM THE NRN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VLY...TO THE
EAST COAST. A WELL-DEFINED PACIFIC LOW WILL COME ASHORE NEAR THE
ORE/CA BORDER AND PROGRESS INLAND WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OF 60M
PER 12H SPREADING FROM THE SRN CASCADES TO NRN NV.

IN THE WEAKER SRN STREAM....AT LEAST TWO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN DEEP CONVECTION. ONE IS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM OF SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO AN
OPEN WAVE OVER NRN MEXICO BY LATER TODAY. THE OTHER IMPULSE...
LIKELY OF MESO/CONVECTIVE ORIGIN...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
WRN AND NWRN TX THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY INDUCING WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL DEEP SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE.

IN THE FASTER STREAM ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...MIDWEST...ND
EAST...MODELS SUGGEST WEAK AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE NOW UNDERCUTTING THE
WRN RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A STRONGER DISTURBANCE EVOLVING
IN THE BASE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER MT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
ENHANCE NOCTURNAL LLJ AND MCS POTENTIAL VICINITY OF KS/MO THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...OH VLY TO MID ATLANTIC...
STRONG IMPULSE WAS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FROM IL/IND TO MO/KS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT
LIKELY TO ACT ON GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS FROM THE DELMARVA
AREA TO THE CAROLINAS. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT
BANDS OR LINES OF RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 40-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW
LONGER-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW/LEE TROUGH AND LOCAL SEA/BAY
BREEZE INTERACTIONS.

MARGINAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY/WV/WRN VA AREA.
GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVELY FAST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...COLD AIR
ALOFT...AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHWEST TO TX...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS PERSISTS IN VICINITY OF RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST TX/PECOS VALLEY. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/MCV.
POCKETS OF STRONGER SFC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK/MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...INITIAL STORMS WILL BE POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SHEAR AND
STORM ORGANIZATION MAY INCREASE BY EVENING AS WEAK SFC WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ENSUES AND LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONT STRENGTHENS. A FEW 
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO LARGE MCS AND SPREADING NEWD THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY PEAK
HEATING ACROSS A LARGE REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST...FROM SRN AZ TO NM.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN
STREAM IMPULSE SPREADING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GENERALLY
WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION BUT INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS/SRN NEB TO MO VLY...
MOISTURE RETURN AROUND WRN EXTENT OF WEAK SRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEPENING LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSES TO SUPPORT
MODEST DESTABILIZATION FROM NERN NM/SERN CO TO KS/NEB BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND GRADUAL CAP EROSION SHOULD
OCCUR AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SRN
CO/NERN NM...AS WELL AS ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP FROM NERN KS INTO
SERN NEB/NWRN MO. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KT ATOP WEAK SLY/SWLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
EVENING AS MID/UPPER IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
WINDS...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST
IN THE SLGT RISK AREA. AN MCS MAY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS NRN MO
THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING LLJ DIRECTED TOWARD THIS REGION.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
STRONG DPVA/LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY MID/UPPER LOW AS IT DRIFTS INLAND
ACROSS NRN CA/SRN ORE TODAY. ANTECEDENT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR 
SCATTERED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KT WILL ENHANCE STORM
UPDRAFTS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING DOWNBURST.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.