[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280108
SWODY1
SPC AC 280106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S
MRF 15 ENE MRF 10 SE GDP 30 NNE ELP 50 ENE DMN 20 ESE TCS 30 W 4CR
55 SSE LVS 40 SSW DHT 10 WNW AMA 50 SW CDS 35 ENE SJT 30 W JCT DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
4LW 35 E SVE 15 SW SVE 30 NW RBL 30 ENE 4BK 30 ENE OTH 25 S SLE 20
ESE SLE 45 NW RDM 35 S RDM 60 SSE 4LW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E NEL 30 S MSV 20
NNW AVP 15 E PSB 15 E MGW 35 NNW CRW 10 WSW LEX 10 SE OWB 30 ESE PAH
45 ENE DYR 30 NE MKL 60 WSW BNA 50 SSW BNA 15 NNE HSV 30 N BHM 20 NE
TCL 45 SSW CBM 30 WNW JAN 55 ESE SHV 35 NE PSX 35 SSE SAT 20 SW COT
10 SW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW GBN 45 WSW GBN 45 NNW GBN 55 NNW GBN 35 S
PRC 15 ESE PRC 30 N PRC 55 SW GCN 40 N IGM 35 NNE LAS 60 N DRA 30 S
TPH 50 ESE BIH 35 N NID 30 NW NID 60 NNE BFL 40 NNE FAT 65 NW BIH 45
SSW TVL 35 E SAC 35 NNW SAC 35 E UKI 50 NNW UKI 15 SE CEC 15 SE OTH
45 SSE AST 15 S OLM 40 ESE OLM 25 NNW DLS 15 S DLS 30 ENE RDM 50 SW
BNO 70 ENE 4LW 75 NW WMC 40 W WMC 25 SSW WMC 40 W TWF TWF 40 SE TWF
60 NNE ENV 55 W U24 30 SW U24 45 E U24 10 SSE PUC 20 SW U28 30 S 4HV
30 SSW U17 75 ESE PGA 45 NW GUP 45 NNE GUP 45 ESE DRO 55 NNE ALS 40
NW COS 25 S LIC 50 NNE GCK 15 NE DDC 35 S DDC 15 S LBL 55 S LBL 65
NE AMA 60 N CDS 10 WNW LTS 30 SE LTS 10 S ADM 30 ENE MLC 30 ESE FSM
30 SSW HRO 25 SSE UMN 10 SSW CNU 25 SSW FNB 35 NW FNB 40 E OMA 30 S
FOD MCW 15 NE RST 15 NNE EAU 55 W RHI 25 ESE IWD 15 E CMX ...CONT...
35 W ANJ 10 NW MBL 25 NNE BEH 45 SW JXN 30 ENE TOL ...CONT... 15 S
ART 40 NW GFL 25 SE EEN BOS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S MIA 40 WNW MIA
40 ENE SRQ 15 ESE GNV 35 SE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW MQM 55 WNW IDA
10 SSW SUN 30 N BOI 60 ESE BKE 60 SSW S80 30 ESE S80 60 E S80 35 NNW
27U 15 SW MQM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND WEST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN CA AND SWRN ORE...

...SRN/ERN NM TO W TX...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA WERE SHOWING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND NERN NM...AND EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS THE
NRN TX PNHDL. A COUPLE OTHER CLUSTERS OF VIGOROUS STORM ACTIVITY
WERE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BIG BEND...ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY. A
NUMBER OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL/OUTFLOW ZONES AMIDST ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE/MAINTAIN STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...MULTICELLULAR STORM
MERGERS...AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM MCV
ACROSS NRN MEXICO...SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MORE HOURS OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SEE
LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR SHORT-TERM FCST INFO.

...NRN CA/SWRN ORE...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST MOISTENING ATOP DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WERE RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM
THE COASTAL RANGES AND SRN CASCADES OF SWRN ORE TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS
OF CA. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...MODEST
 DIFFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW...COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC/DIABATIC
EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS. BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION
BEGINS TO SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...SERN AZ...
BAND OF STRONGER ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND MCV CIRCULATION ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO HAS
AIDED DEEP LAYER ASCENT ACROSS SERN AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS PIMA COUNTY WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
INITIATING AS CAP IS OVERCOME BY HEATING. OUTFLOW SPREADING WWD
ACROSS GILA COUNTY MAY FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. GIVEN SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 40F...AND
POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.