[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271950
SWODY1
SPC AC 271948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
UKI 35 ESE EKA 45 SE OTH 35 ESE SLE 45 NW RDM 45 NNW LMT 55 SSW 4LW
30 W SVE TVL 30 WSW TVL RBL 35 E UKI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW
ELP 20 ENE DMN TCS 40 W SVC DUG FHU 50 NNW SAD 45 SSW INW 25 NE SOW
70 SSW GNT GNT 15 WNW 4SL ALS TAD 55 E LVS 45 WSW TCC 30 NNW ROW 45
SE ALM 35 WNW ELP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
ART 10 NW GFL 10 SSE PSF POU 35 NNW EWR TTN SBY RIC LYH PSK CGI UNO
SGF COU P35 40 ENE SUX DBQ 20 SW CGX SBN JXN 20 ESE MBS 60 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PBG LEB 25 S
PWM ...CONT... 50 ENE ORF ORF RWI AND ANB 0A8 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM
...CONT... 25 ESE CZZ TRM DAG EDW NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW
SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE BLI YKM 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW SLC 10
E PUC GUC LIC DDC HUT RSL IML BFF PHP PIR AXN 15 NNE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW CTY 40 NNE CTY
DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY EVE ACROSS A BROAD
AREA FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA INTO
THE SOUTHERN CASCADES....

...MID MO/MS VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES**...
COLD CORE UPPER LOW HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA...
WITH BELT OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW TO ITS SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME UPSTREAM...AND WILL AIDED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL.

LOW MOISTURE LEVELS ARE LIMITING MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION... BUT
STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS.  PEAK
INTENSITIES OF STORMS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
SEVERE AT BEST...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MOST AREAS
BY 01-02Z...WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...FOUR CORNERS STATES...
STRONG HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WHERE
LOWER-LEVELS ARE A BIT MORE MOIST.  SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
DIFLUENT...AND LIKELY AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT...UPPER FLOW REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST
WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES...SHASTA/SISKIYOUS AND NORTHERN SIERRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
 LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES INDICATE DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS...WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

...FLORIDA...
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...UP TO AROUND 1000
J/KG...BUT STILL MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A VERY LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND
THREAT IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERALLY BECOME CONFINED ALONG CONVERGING SEA BREEZES ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 05/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.