[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271641
SWODY1
SPC AC 271640

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
EKA 50 ESE OTH 25 N SLE 35 SW DLS RDM 25 N 4LW 35 N SVE 35 S SVE 35
SSE TVL 50 N FAT 20 E MER 35 WSW SAC 30 E UKI 35 E EKA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
ROW 40 W SVC 65 E SOW 50 NE GUP 35 SSW ALS 30 WNW RTN 15 SW TCC 10
NW CVS 50 NNW HOB 40 SW ROW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ART 10 SE UCA 35 NW EWR DOV RIC 40 E LYH BKW LOZ CGI 35 NW TBN 25 N
SZL 30 SSE P35 OTM 45 SW RFD GRR 65 N MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE WAL 25 S RIC
15 W BLF 35 E BNA 15 ESE MSL 30 ESE CBM 30 WSW LUL 25 SE HUM
...CONT... 40 WSW MSS 25 SSE RUT 20 SSW PSM ...CONT... 45 SE YUM 25
WNW GBN 35 SSW PRC 20 SW IGM 25 NNE LAS 40 NNE DRA 55 ESE BIH 40 N
NID 35 NW NID 30 SSE MER 50 WSW SAC 20 SSE EKA 15 ESE 4BK 30 W SLE
30 NW PDX 30 NNW DLS 65 NE RDM 90 E 4LW 45 NW EKO 55 N ELY 25 SE CDC
25 SW 4BL 35 W ALS 20 SE LHX 50 NNW GCK 35 WSW EAR 30 NNW BUB 40 NNW
9V9 AXN 25 WNW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY 45 SSE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW MEXICO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OR AND NRN CA...

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
BROAD ZONE OF STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION
...SOUTH OF ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS EWD INTO THE NERN U.S.  WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND ERN IL WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM
LOCATED IN SD. ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MI SWWD INTO
CENTRAL IL/NRN MO...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK WITH WLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCLEAR.
ONCE SURFACE BASED STORMS INITIATE... DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY...STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING LINES OF STORMS.
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT HAIL IN SOME STORMS.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY
COOLS...RESULTING IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

...NM...
MORNING SOUNDINGS WERE MOIST FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB WITH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND AN MCV...LOCATED ABOUT 90 S OF ELP...SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NRN CA
COAST...COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING AND MID 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE AROUND 15-20 KT...MLCAPE
VALUES TO 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

...TX TO LWR MS VLY...
REMNANT FRONT FROM SRN TX NEWD TO THE LA COAST MAY PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE STRONG HEATING AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN STORMS TO
PRODUCE OUTFLOWS THAT LIMIT STRONG SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

...FL...
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PAST
YESTERDAY...RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONTS AND STATIONARY FRONT FROM CTY TO ORL MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR LOCATED BETWEEN 850 AND 500
MB MAY RESULT IN A FEW MICRO BURSTS IN A COUPLE OF STORMS.

..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.