[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270547
SWODY1
SPC AC 270545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
JHW 30 NW ITH 25 SSE MSV 15 ESE PHL 15 WNW BWI 25 SE PKB EVV 45 ESE
VIH 10 W JEF 25 SSW IRK OTM 25 SE DBQ 35 N CGX 20 NW AZO MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
ROW 45 WNW SVC 65 ENE SOW 10 NNE GNT 15 NE SAF 35 E LVS 15 SSW TCC
10 ESE CVS 50 E ROW 40 SW ROW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW GNV 50 SSE
JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 35 NNE PHX
20 SSE P38 50 SSW U31 50 NW BIH 45 E FAT 10 WNW SAC 45 W RBL 45 SSE
OTH 25 SSE HQM 35 NNE PDX 45 SE 4LW 10 NW EKO 50 SW DPG 35 ESE BCE
35 NE DRO 30 E GLD 30 NNE SUX 15 SE EAU 30 NW IWD 65 ENE ELO
...CONT... 15 E MSS 25 NE BID ...CONT... 30 NE SBY 20 ESE BKW 20 W
CHA 40 NNW MOB 10 N BVE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MS VLY TO ERN
PA/WRN NJ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SCNTRL CANADA/NCNTRL U.S. BORDER AREA WILL
UNDERGO A WEST-TO-EAST ELONGATION AS SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE AND FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS PERIOD. ONE OF THESE 
DISTURBANCES WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS ERN PA/NY AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF UPSTREAM IMPULSES IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL SHORT WAVE...FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE MIDWEST
WILL MAINTAIN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ON THE
CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF STRONG MID LEVEL JET.

TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...UPPER RIDGING AND
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. REMNANTS OF A DEEPER SYNOPTIC
FRONT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH THIS FLOW REGIME FROM THE SRN ROCKIES
ACROSS TX TO THE LWR MS VALLEY. MOISTURE AND LIFT FOCUSED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS NEAR SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM S TX TO
SRN NM AND NRN MEXICO WILL AGAIN PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW MOVING NWD ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA MAY BEGIN TO TAP THIS INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.

...MIDWEST/LWR GREAT LAKES TO PA/NJ...
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...COLD AIR ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS
OR ARCS OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD REGION OF THE
MIDWEST AND UPPER OH VLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SLGT
RISK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THIS CONVECTION
PASSES...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY STORM-FREE.
LATEST NAM CAPE FCSTS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PA/NY WITH THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE MODEL.
HOWEVER...EVEN LOW 50S F DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS THESE AREAS BY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS LIMITED INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
STRONG SHEAR APPEAR TO WARRANT THE SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

...NM...
OROGRAPHIC AND DIABATIC FORCING WILL AGAIN RESULT IN STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY PRESENCE OF DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE NCNTRL U.S. TROUGH. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
FCST MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS OR PERSISTENT TSTM CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY
DRIER SUBCLOUD AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

...TX TO LWR MS VLY...
RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH STRONGER
HEATING. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX GIVEN WEAK CAP. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS BUT
OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.

...FL...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ATOP AND
ABUNDANT TROPICAL HEAT AND MOISTURE. MESOSCALE FORCING/SHEAR NEAR
EAST COAST SEABREEZE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS.

..CARBIN/SCHNEIDER.. 05/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.