[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271226
SWODY1
SPC AC 271225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2005

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
JHW 30 NW ITH 25 SSE MSV 15 ESE PHL 15 WNW BWI 25 SE PKB EVV 45 ESE
VIH 10 W JEF 25 SSW IRK OTM 25 SE DBQ 35 N CGX 20 NW AZO MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
ROW 45 WNW SVC 65 ENE SOW 10 NNE GNT 15 NE SAF 35 E LVS 15 SSW TCC
10 ESE CVS 50 E ROW 40 SW ROW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE GBN 35 NNE PHX
20 SSE P38 50 SSW U31 50 NW BIH 45 E FAT 10 WNW SAC 45 W RBL 45 SSE
OTH 25 SSE HQM 35 NNE PDX 45 SE 4LW 10 NW EKO 50 SW DPG 35 ESE BCE
35 NE DRO 35 SSW IML 45 WNW VTN 20 NE BKX 25 NE BRD 20 ESE INL
...CONT... 25 E MSS 25 NNE BOS ...CONT... 30 NE SBY 20 ESE BKW 20 W
CHA 40 NNW MOB 10 N BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CTY 25 ESE
JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF NM...

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF STRONG WLY FLOW...SOUTH OF
ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  A SERIES OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WERE
EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  LEADING IMPULSE NOW OVER
IND/OH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY/PA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEMS WILL LIKEWISE
FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES STATES...AND ACROSS
THE LOWER MO/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE MLCAPE AOB 750
J/KG.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

STRONG WLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO A
SERIES OF SMALL LINES MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD.  THOUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG HEATING BENEATH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT STEEP SUB-CLOUD LAPSE RATES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO FAVOR LARGE
HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AFTER DARK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEAKEN.

...NM...
PERSISTENT ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS AIDED IN DEVELOPING A RATHER
MOIST SURFACE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NM AND INTO FAR SERN AZ
THIS MORNING.  THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN WEAK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION.  STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

...WRN ORE/FAR NRN CA...
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
AND PERSISTENCE OF 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY LATER TODAY OVER THIS REGION.  THOUGH OVERALL FLOW
ALOFT/SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS
WHICH CAN MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...TX TO LWR MS VLY...
RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASED INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH STRONGER
HEATING. DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME...NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS TX GIVEN WEAK CAP. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS BUT
OVERALL POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW FOR A SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.

...FL...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT FROM COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS ATOP
ABUNDANT TROPICAL HEAT AND MOISTURE. MESOSCALE FORCING/SHEAR NEAR
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WINDS.

..EVANS/BOTHWELL.. 05/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.