[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261222
SWODY1
SPC AC 261221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
ELP 35 WNW ONM 15 WSW 4SL 40 SW ALS 40 ENE ALS 15 ENE TAD 35 SSE RTN
35 SSE LVS 40 E 4CR 40 NW HOB 35 N MAF SJT 50 NNW SAT 30 SSW SAT 35
ESE COT LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 15 ESE DAB
...CONT... 25 NE ROC 50 NE BFD LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10
NNW GGG 40 SE LFK 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 60 SW TUS 20 NNW TUS 15 ESE
SAD 20 SSW SOW 45 NW PRC 20 SW GCN 70 ESE PGA CEZ 55 S 4FC 25 ENE
CYS 55 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 30 N LVM 10 ESE SDY 50 ENE BIS 40
ENE FAR 60 SSE DLH 30 E CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE TVL 25 SE SAC
35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC 35 NNE
WMC EKO 15 S MLF 30 NNW SGU 55 SE NFL 70 SSE TVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SGF 20 NNW TBN
25 NW COU FLV 45 SSW EAR 30 NW IML 40 E AKO 55 NE LAA 20 E DDC 30
NNW HUT 35 ESE EMP 20 WNW SGF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO CENTRAL NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS OVER NA WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ERN
CANADA. LOW THAT HAS BEEN VICINITY NERN U.S. FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEGINS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE E AS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY MN/CANADIAN
BORDER EXPANDS ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO INCLUDE MUCH OF ERN HALF
OF U.S. N OF 35N.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD E/SE ACROSS PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM A
DEEPENING LOW SWRN ONTARIO THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NRN OK
AND TX PANHANDLE.

OUTFLOW FROM EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY YESTERDAY SRN PLAINS
HAS PUSHED SWD INTO CENTRAL TX AND WWD ACROSS MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
NM.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITING THE AREA OF MDT INSTABILITY  THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SWRN TX NWWD INTO NM.

...SWRN TX AND NM...
COMBINATION OF BOTH THE THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AND COOLER AIR WITH SWD
MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL CONFINE THE AIRMASS NEEDED TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX NWWD INTO CENTRAL
NM.  THIS AIR MASS IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE NWLY FLOW AROUND THE
LARGE LOW OVER NCENTRAL U.S.  THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 30KT. MULTI-CELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANT IN THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SUFFICIENT CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE TO RESULT IN
HEATING STRONG ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIATE.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE EVENING UPON CESSATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...SRN FL...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND S OF COOL FRONT.  THE E/W FRONT ACROSS S FL WILL MOVE
LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MUCAPES UPWARDS TO 2500 J/KG  AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25KT OR LESS...WILL FOCUS BEST SEVERE THREAT TO ALONG
E COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

...NRN PLAINS...
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THE STRONG WNWLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
NRN PLAINS. WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED  BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER THE BEST MUCAPE INDICTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS IS STILL LESS
THAN 500 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH MOST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO
PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. THUS THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

..HALES/BRIGHT.. 05/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.