[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261646
SWODY1
SPC AC 261645

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
P07 65 WSW SJT 25 ENE SJT 50 WNW AUS 20 ESE SAT ALI 10 ESE MFE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
DMN 35 W ONM 15 W 4SL 25 SSW ALS 45 WNW TAD TAD 50 ENE LVS 65 SW TCC
15 NNW CNM 15 N MRF 75 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE TVL 25 SE SAC
35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC 35 NNE
WMC EKO 15 S MLF 30 NNW SGU 55 SE NFL 70 SSE TVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE ROC 20 ENE BFD
25 SSE LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10 NNW GGG 50 ESE LFK 25
ESE LFT 15 NW BVE ...CONT... 20 NNW PIE 35 ENE ORL ...CONT... 60 SW
TUS 20 NNW TUS 15 ESE SAD 20 SSW SOW 45 NW PRC 20 SW GCN 70 ESE PGA
CEZ 55 S 4FC 20 E CYS 50 E DGW 50 WSW GCC 50 NW COD 30 W 3HT 40 ESE
SDY 35 NW BIS 25 E FAR 45 WSW HIB 50 SE ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S SGF 20 NNW TBN
25 NW COU 10 SSE FLV 55 SSW HSI 10 ENE IML 40 NNW GLD 55 NE LAA 20 E
DDC 25 S PNC 20 ESE TUL 10 S SGF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY SEASONAL COLD VORTEX CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE N
CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE PERIOD.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWD THRU NWRN
INDIANA AND SERN MO...THEN SWWD AND WWD ACROSS NERN AND W CENTRAL
TX.  PATTERNS LIKE THIS LIMIT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INSTABILITY FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS.  IN THIS CASE
TODAY ...ONLY REMNANTS OF MCS ACTIVITY ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS..WHERE THERE IS UPSLOPE FLOW TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AIDED BY
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...SOUTH TEXAS...

REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES SEWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVED S OF THE RIO GRANDE AND HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF DISORGANIZING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DURING THE PAST
HOUR OR SO.  ACTIVITY ON THE U.S. SIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE SHOWS SOME
REMAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS.  MLCAPE IS 1500-2000 J/KG /LIS ARE -2 TO -6/ ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. THUS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8-8.5C/KM AND CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL NM...

UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS LATER TODAY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM. 
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS.

...SRN FL...

REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF
FL FROM FMY-PBI.  SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG.  MODELS MOVE WEAK
LOW EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ENHANCE UVVS
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.  SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

...PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SD TO MN AND IA...

MODELS SHOW SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COOL WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 40S AT THIS TIME.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.