[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260508
SWODY1
SPC AC 260505

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
ELP 35 WNW ONM 15 WSW 4SL 40 SW ALS 40 ENE ALS 15 ENE TAD 35 SSE RTN
35 SSE LVS 40 E 4CR 40 NW HOB 50 N MAF 40 ENE SJT 55 NNW SAT 30 SSW
SAT 35 ESE COT LRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA
GRI 25 W BBW 30 ENE MHN 40 NE ANW 30 SSE MHE 40 SSW OTG 35 SSE SPW
45 WNW DSM OMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE TVL 35 SW TVL
35 E UKI 20 E EKA 30 NE 4BK 20 ESE AST 25 ENE PDX 75 NW WMC EKO 45
NW ELY 55 SE NFL 35 SE TVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 15 ESE DAB
...CONT... 25 NE ROC 50 NE BFD LBE 20 NW EKN 30 S LOZ 45 NNW TUP 10
NNW GGG 40 SE LFK 25 WSW PNS ...CONT... 40 SW DMN 40 SSE GUP CEZ 55
S 4FC 25 ENE CYS 55 E DGW 35 SSW GCC 25 WSW MLS 55 SSW OLF 10 ESE
SDY 50 ENE BIS 40 ENE FAR 60 SSE DLH 30 E CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW JLN 40 WSW COU
40 NNW COU FLV 45 SSW EAR 15 SW MCK GLD 40 NNE EHA 40 SSW P28 15 W
PNC 15 ENE BVO 20 NW JLN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN
NEB....SERN SD....AND WRN IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN CO...CNTRL
NM...AND SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA THIS
PERIOD WITH A BELT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AREA. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND ROCKIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

A DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN TO FILL WHILE
DRIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME COASTAL WATERS. COOL NELY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON
THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES MAY SLOWLY BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST U.S.
COAST.

...NEB/SERN SD/WRN IA...
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WNWLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MO VLY AREAS...LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY DRY WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY BELOW 50F. IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP LOW OVER CANADA.
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS SD/NEB AND IA. GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
POTENTIAL FOR MOISTENING ATOP THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...A
FEW TSTMS SHOULD FORM AS THE WIND SHIFT SPREADS SEWD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 300-600
J/KG...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE EASILY PRODUCED BY THIS
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

...S TX/MID AND UPR RIO GRANDE VLY...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO S TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VLY BENEATH NWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30KT. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO PLAY A
ROLE IN TSTM INITIATION/MAINTENENCE ACROSS THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY.
MOST PROMINENT BOUNDARY WAS A COLD FRONT BACKING INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF ERN/CNTRL NM. THIS FRONT IS PRECEEDED BY SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ACROSS CNTRL TX. DEVELOPING COLD POOLS FROM
ONGOING AND INCREASING CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX
WILL LIKELY BECOME THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT FROM SERN NM TO THE HILL
COUNTRY BY EARLY MORNING. GIVEN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND MEAN NWLY
STEERING FLOW OVER THE REGION...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE DAY. FORCING AND SHEAR ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE TSTMS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED WWD/NWWD INTO CNTRL NRN
NM...AND PERHAPS SCNTRL CO...WHERE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR...FORCING...AND INSTABILITY. A NUMBER
OF SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NM AND A FEW OF THESE
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

...FL...
RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE AND PRESENCE OF COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL AGAIN AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN FL. SEA
BREEZE/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY COMPENSATE FOR LACK OF STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 05/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.