[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260114
SWODY1
SPC AC 260113

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
P07 25 W GDP 40 S 4CR 30 NW LVS 50 W RTN RTN 35 NE TCC 25 SSW CDS 30
W SPS 40 E SPS 45 NNW DAL 35 NW TYR 25 S TYR 40 E LFK 30 ESE POE 25
SW BTR 10 E HUM 40 WSW BVE ...CONT... 20 NE GLS 45 ESE AUS 25 NNE
SAT 20 SW HDO 50 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW GLS 55 N PSX 45
NNW NIR 60 SSE LRD ...CONT... 70 SSW GDP 30 SSW ALM 25 SE ONM 50 N
4SL 40 SSE GUC 55 ENE GUC 10 NNE COS 25 NNW LHX 45 SSE EHA 40 NW GAG
30 SW RSL 35 NE CNK 20 SSE OMA FOD 15 SSE OTG 10 NNW MHN 20 NNW AIA
50 SW GCC 10 NNW WRL 30 SSW LVM 15 N HLN 45 N FCA ...CONT... 25 W
RRT 25 E BRD 25 ENE EAU 30 NNE DBQ 15 NNE BRL 45 WNW TBN 15 SSW UMN
20 WSW FYV 10 ESE MLC 20 WNW PRX 10 NNE SHV 50 NW ESF 30 SW HEZ 30
SE MCB 45 SSE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIE 15 SE MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE BCE 15 SE P38
55 SE TPH 45 SW U31 40 NNW U31 25 S EKO 30 W DPG 15 NNE U24 35 NNE
BCE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TUS TUS 45 N
DUG 35 ESE DUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN NM AND MUCH
OF CNTRL AND SERN TX AND SWRN LA...

...CNTRL TX...
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SERN TX THIS EVENING. A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES ARE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF AN ALL-DAY MCS THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER. FURTHERMORE...A WELL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
SLOWLY SEWD FROM THE TX PNHDL. DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK/LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...
BOUNDARY AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE FORM OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE NEAR ONGOING
CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS OVER THE PECOS VALLEY WHERE STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING HAS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATED INHIBITION. THIS MCS MAY BEGIN TO
 SPREAD SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AS COLD POOL INTENSIFIES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT FROM ABI AREA EAST TO SEP/MWL AREA.
PRONOUNCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING FROM NELY/ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TOPPED BY NWLY FLOW OF 30-40KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE AND UPDRAFT SPLITTING OF DISCRETE CELLS IN THIS AREA. A
SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL IS INDICATED OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO GIVEN DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LOWER LFC NEAR THE
OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT /SEE TORN PROBABILITY GRAPHIC/.

...SWRN LA...
LONG-TRACK MCS MENTIONED ABOVE WAS MOVING INTO STRONG INSTABILITY
ALONG THE SWRN LA GULF COAST. PRE-CONVECTIVE LCH RAOB WILL SUPPORT A
MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE MCS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS BUT OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IS EXPECTED AS EVENING PROGRESSES
AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION SETS IN.

...ERN NM...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN STRONG
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME BENEATH 20-30KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. CELLS NOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS ARE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE MOVING INTO THIS REGION. FORCING...SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
FROM THIS CONVECTION. THE FRONT MAY ACT TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT OF AN
MCS SPREADING SSEWD ACROSS ECNTRL AND SERN NM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

...NW/CNTRL OK...
COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT TSTMS FROM THE TX
PNHDL ENEWD ACROSS NWRN AND CNTRL OK. WEAKENING INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES AND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT
ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD RESULT IN A STRONG WIND GUST OR HAIL EVENT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...SRN FL...
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SWWD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN WEAKLY
CAPPED STRONG UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOTED ON EVENING RAOBS FROM TBW AND
MFL. ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF
A SEVERE WIND GUST OR LARGE HAIL REPORT BUT OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND
SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.