[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251945
SWODY1
SPC AC 251943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE
LBB 60 S CDS MWL 10 WNW ACT 50 NW AUS 40 W JCT 55 SE MAF 50 SSE LBB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
BPT 45 W HOU 15 S SAT HDO P07 FST GDP 45 ESE ALM 10 N 4CR LVS ALS 40
W COS 15 WSW COS 30 SW PUB 50 SSE LHX 30 NNW LBL RSL LNK 15 ESE OMA
40 NW LWD LWD FLV 10 NNE PNC 20 S GAG AMA CDS 10 NW SPS 35 SSW DUA
SHV ESF 30 WSW HUM 15 SSW BPT 30 WSW BPT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 50
ESE FMY 25 ENE SRQ 25 WSW ORL MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 ENE ELO CWA MSN 40
SSW RFD 35 WSW SPI UNO HOT 10 N ELD LUL 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE
CTY 15 SE DAB ...CONT... 25 SSE CRP 10 WNW LRD ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS
55 NW TUS 40 W SAD 50 WSW DMN 30 SSW TCS 10 W GNT 80 S 4BL 30 NE GCN
LAS 50 ESE FAT 20 ENE SAC RBL 30 N RBL 10 W SVE LOL 30 NE ELY RKS
FCL AKO GLD 30 WNW HLC HSI OLU SUX 20 NNW YKN 10 N ANW 15 NNW CDR 45
N WRL 15 N BZN 45 N FCA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF NW/W CNTRL TX/...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA....

...FLORIDA**...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE CIRCULATION NOW
CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME IS JUST NOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...AND DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. 
HOWEVER...ZONE OF ENHANCED FORCING IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW.
 THIS LIKELY WILL SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WHERE SEA BREEZE IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE
ALONG WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. THOUGH SHEAR IS ONLY MODERATE IN
STRENGTH AT BEST...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE 
UP TO 3000 J/KG.  VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME HAIL
IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS**...
LATEST MODEL/OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSE
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU.  FORCING WITH ONE OF THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...WHICH WILL
LIKELY INTENSIFY IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AS IT DEVELOPS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.

AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE MIGRATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NEW
MEXICO...ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ROUGHLY ACROSS THE
ABILENE/SAN ANGELO AREAS.  MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED INTO THE
90S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH CAPE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG. 
GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF
30-35 MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES UPSCALE. 
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY...WITH
BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE AS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM FORMS AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS SOUTH/ SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS**...
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG MAIN SURFACE FRONT
NOW ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...
SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS.  INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT...BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...FOR A FEW STORMS
WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.