[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251634
SWODY1
SPC AC 251632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
BPT 45 W HOU 15 S SAT 35 N DRT 25 S FST 35 N GDP 45 S 4CR 65 NNW LVS
20 WNW COS 30 SW LIC EHA CSM 15 N PRX 45 SE PRX SHV 20 W POE 20 NNE
BPT 30 WSW BPT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MIA 55
W MIA 30 N FMY 35 NW AGR 10 SSE MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE
MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 N MLI 25 N SZL 20 NW JLN 35 WSW FYV 40 SSE HOT JAN
30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 30 SSE CTY 15 SE DAB ...CONT... 45 WSW GLS 15
N VCT 45 ENE COT 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 WSW TUS 55 NW TUS 40 W SAD
50 WSW DMN 30 SSW TCS 10 W GNT 80 S 4BL 30 NE GCN 40 SW SGU 20 NNW
P38 40 SE ELY 25 ESE U24 25 SW CAG 30 SW LAR 45 ENE CYS 25 NNW IML
45 ENE MCK 20 S HSI 25 SSE OLU 35 NNW SUX 20 NNW YKN 10 N ANW 15 NNW
CDR 45 N WRL 15 N BZN 45 N FCA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN PLAINS WWD INTO ERN
NM/SRN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST COAST...AS UPPER
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...DEEPENS AND SHIFTS
SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WNWWD
INTO NRN/WRN TX...AND THEN NWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN
CO/NM. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN U.S.
TROUGH...WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME ERN SD...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN CO.

...SRN PLAINS...
OVERNIGHT MCS WAS LOCATED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND THE SPS
AREA AT MID MORNING. WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF MWL
WITH FRONT EXTENDING EWD NORTH OF DFW TO NEAR SHV. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD NORTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THEY ARE MAINTAINED BY WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.
THE STORMS MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT WITH HEATING AND AS THE STORMS NEAR THE FRONT...UPDRAFTS
SHOULD INGEST A RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE AND LARGER HAIL.

ALSO...CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CAP AND
AID IN GENERATING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AN
AREA BETWEEN DFW AND ABI. STRONG HEATING...SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0C/KM...WILL RESULT IN STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WINDS IN THE LOWER
3 KM WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONGER WINDS 3-10 KM AGL AND
VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT... THOUGH THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG PROPAGATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO MOVE SWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AREA OF TEXAS
OVERNIGHT WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT.

...ERN NM/ERN CO...
ELY BOUNDARY LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT HIGHER
DEWPOINTS/GREATER INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND AID IN STORM
INITIATION NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN NM. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...BUT HIGH STORM BASES AND VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
LARGE HAIL.

...SRN FL...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CENTRAL FL THOUGH
CONVERGENCE IS WEAK. HOWEVER...WHAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP WILL BE
IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH 30 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLE
DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE AND
SURFACE FRONT.

..IMY/DARROW.. 05/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.