[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251229
SWODY1
SPC AC 251227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
BPT 35 NNW HOU 35 SE AUS 30 N DRT 25 S FST 35 N GDP 45 NE ALM 25 NNE
SAF 50 W COS 25 NE COS 45 S LAA 15 SSE OKC 20 W PRX 45 NNE TYR 25
ESE SHV 25 E POE 25 WSW 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
MIA 55 ESE FMY 40 WSW AGR 45 WSW ORL 25 N MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E DUG TCS 30 ESE
GNT 15 NNW FMN 40 W PGA 15 W SGU 45 NW P38 20 S ELY 25 ESE U24 50 NW
4FC 40 SSW DGW CDR 15 NNW RAP 25 N 81V 25 SSE 3HT 50 NNW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CTY DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 120 NNE CMX 30 NNE
MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 N MLI 40 ENE CNU 25 NE HOT 40 N JAN 30 SSE CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLS 45 E SAT
20 ESE HDO 60 SE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S FLORIDA...

...SYNOPSIS...
READJUSTMENT IN LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NA WITH A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND NCENTRAL U.S.  THE
LOW OFF THE NERN COAST WILL PERSIST ANOTHER DAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE NE. VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH ROTATES EWD ACROSS NRN
PLAINS WHICH WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER MN TODAY. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO BY EARLY THU AS A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM VICINITY MN/DAKOTA BORDER SWWD INTO
NERN CO CONTINUES E AND S...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

OVERNIGHT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MCS ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SURFACE
BOUNDARY SWD THRU WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST A FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS ESEWD FROM SERN OK TO GULF COAST SRN MS THEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

...SRN PLAINS...
WITH THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD
FRONT...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SHIFTED TO
THE S OF PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.  UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD TO E SLOPES OF SRN ROCKIES.  WITH
GENERALLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 7-8C/KM PERSISTING EWD
ACROSS TX...AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/ERN NM
BY MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.  WHILE TORNADO
THREAT IS LOW...LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH ANY ROTATING STORM.

ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY EWD ACROSS TX AS AIRMASS
BECOMES STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH JUST A WEAK CAP. 
INITIATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ON BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION THAT WILL WORK SWD INTO N TX AND LA.

SHEAR GENERALLY SUFFICIENTLY WEAK THAT MULTI-CELLULAR WILL BE THE
DOMINATE STORM MODE FROM CENTRAL TX SEWD.

...SRN FL...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD CENTRAL FL.  IN THE
MEANTIME INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RATHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON SRN FL. WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2500 J/KG S OF
FRONT AND AROUND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE SHOULD BE A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS WILL
RESULT IN SOME HAIL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY
VICINITY E COAST SEA BREEZE.

..HALES/BRIGHT.. 05/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.