[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250609
SWODY1
SPC AC 250608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 20
WSW HOU 35 SSW AUS 30 N DRT 25 NW FST 35 N GDP 45 NE ALM 25 NNE SAF
50 W COS 25 NE COS LHX 40 NW EHA 30 NE LBL 25 WSW ICT 25 SE PNC 45
NNE ADM 10 W DUA 35 N TYR 10 SW GGG 40 NNW POE 25 E POE 25 WSW 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
MIA 55 ESE FMY 40 WSW AGR 45 WSW ORL 25 N MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW GLS 45 E SAT
15 ENE HDO 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 40 ESE DUG TCS 10 NW ABQ 15 NNW FMN
40 W PGA 15 W SGU 45 NW P38 20 S ELY 25 ESE U24 50 NW 4FC 40 SSW DGW
CDR 15 NNW RAP 25 N 81V 25 SSE 3HT 50 NNW FCA ...CONT... 120 NNE CMX
30 NNE MQT 20 SSW IMT 35 SW RFD 20 ENE CNU 45 NW LIT 45 SSW GWO 30
SSE CEW ...CONT... 35 SSE CTY 30 SE DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN CO/ERN NM AND SEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SWRN LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NERN PACIFIC...WILL
BUILD NEWD OVER WRN CANADA/PAC NW TODAY RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION
OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS.  HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY WILL RESULT IN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN PLAINS AND SEWD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO FL.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EWD INTO MN AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING A LINE FROM
NRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN IA TO NERN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TODAY...
AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN TO ERN TX/SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE EAST...A LARGE COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS.  SRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA TODAY.

...SERN CO/ERN NM/KS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO SRN LA...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES SSEWD INTO NWRN- NORTH
CENTRAL TX.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NRN-ERN TX INTO SRN LA
WILL WEAKEN THE CAP FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THIS REGION.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV MOVING INTO NWRN-CENTRAL TX AND
A SECOND MCV MOVING SWD ACROSS LA ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WWD INTO ERN NM/SERN CO IN ADVANCE OF THE
SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WITH STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF ERN NM/SERN CO.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND ACTIVITY MOVING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER ERN NM AND ACROSS NWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A POTENTIAL MCS MOVING SWD ACROSS WRN TX AS A SSELY
LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL/SRN FL...
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR UPSTREAM MCV SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN FL FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. 
THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED S OF THIS FRONT. 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/MCV AND SURFACE
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED AIR MASS.  STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL FL. UNI-DIRECTIONAL WINDS WILL FAVOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

...ERN-NERN MN TO NWRN WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE NRN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS AND MN TODAY...REACHING
THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY.  STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
/70-80 KT AT 500 MB AND 100 KT AT 250 MB/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
SD/NRN NEB TO SRN MN/IA.  A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN SD AT 12Z TODAY...
AND LOCATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WILL TRACK NEWD TOWARD WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY.  CLOUDINESS ALONG/E OF THE COLD
FRONT/SURFACE LOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED TODAY AS STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT/90-120 METER HEIGHT
FALLS SPREAD EWD ACROSS MN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  A SWLY LLJ
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-45 KT FROM SRN MN TO NERN MN/NWRN WI THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS.  INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
ALONG/E OF THE FRONT MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THE 40-45 KT SWLY LLJ... ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE OF THIS SEVERE THREAT...A CATEGORICAL RISK IS NOT
EXPECTED...WITH A 5% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WINDS ALONG/E OF THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

..PETERS/BOTHWELL.. 05/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.