[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250110
SWODY1
SPC AC 250108

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
EHA 25 SSE LAA 35 NE LHX 25 SW GLD 30 SE IML 20 S MCK 35 WNW HLC 35
SSW HLC 40 SW RSL 45 SSW RSL 50 ENE GAG 25 SSW GAG 30 SE EHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
VTN 35 W HON 30 SE BKX 40 N SUX OFK 10 W GRI 35 S EAR 10 NNW RSL 15
WSW HUT 10 NW PNC TUL 15 NNE FYV 35 NW LIT 25 N GLH 40 N JAN 25 ENE
LUL 30 S GPT 20 NNW HUM 30 N BPT 35 SSW GGG 40 SSE DUA SPS PVW TCC
25 WSW TAD 30 S DEN 40 N CYS 40 WSW CDR 45 W VTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GLS 65 SW TYR
ACT 20 SSW BWD SJT 50 SE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 25 NNE TUS 25 NNW
SAD 30 ENE TCS 30 E 4CR LVS 10 N DRO 45 SE CNY 20 SW U28 30 NNE PUC
45 NW VEL RWL 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH
55 ESE BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NE ELO 35 E MSP OMA 30 NNE MHK
10 N CNU 40 NE HRO 40 SW TCL DHN 25 NNE VLD 15 NE SSI ...CONT... 40
ENE CHS 45 N CRE 35 E GSB 15 SE ORF.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SMALL PART OF ERN
CO...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO NWRN OK INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NERN TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND SEWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...EXTENDED FROM ERN CO SEWD ACROSS SWRN KS INTO
CENTRAL-SERN OK.  AIR MASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT. 
ONGOING UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT FOR AN MCS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN KS
AND SERN CO THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  MCS PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER SEVERE MCS TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS WRN-SWRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SRN KS/NRN-WRN OK OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DERECHO AND LARGE
HAIL WITH THIS MCS.  HOWEVER...CAPPING PER 00Z SOUNDINGS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT.

...ERN OK/AR TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
A WELL DEFINED MCV AND MCS ACROSS AR/FAR ERN OK WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SEWD ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY INTO SRN AR/LA AND
POTENTIALLY ERN TX THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS MCV WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SEWD ACROSS SRN AR/NERN LA INTO SWRN MS THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LEAD
ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE MCS MOVING INTO SRN AR/LA AND FAR ERN TX.

...ERN WY/NEB TO ND/SD/MN...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL TRACK
EWD TOWARD THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 100 KT WNWLY
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SWRN SD BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  A COMPLEX
SURFACE PATTERN EXISTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
STATES...WITH A LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE NERN NEB/SERN SD BORDER.  A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL ND/SD SWD TOWARD THE SURFACE LOW
AND THEN SWWD INTO NERN CO.  MEANWHILE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATED A
SW-NE ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION... CONTINUING TO
RETREAT SLOWLY NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND SERN SD.

MODELS SUGGEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD OVERNIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NEB TO ALONG THE MN/
DAKOTAS BORDER BY 12Z. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THIS ZONE OF
BAROCLINICITY. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS STRONGER INFLOW OF MOIST AIR MASS IS PROGGED INTO THE
DEVELOPING MCS OVER FARTHER S ACROSS WRN KS/SERN CO ATTM.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z ACROSS
SERN WY/NORTH CENTRAL CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE AS STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE ENEWD.  A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...FAR ERN NC...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL NC THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS...WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE AND ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO DECREASE AFTER 02-03Z AS THE SURFACE LOW/TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVE OFFSHORE OF NC/SC.

..PETERS.. 05/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.