[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 242001
SWODY1
SPC AC 242000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2005

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EHA 20
S LIC 45 W AKO 30 WNW IML 10 SE IML HLC 50 NNE DDC P28 GAG EHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
OAJ 30 WSW GSB 30 N SOP 25 NNE GSO 50 ESE LYH 10 SW ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PIR
ABR 45 NNE ATY 10 WNW FSD 10 NW OFK 10 W GRI 40 S EAR 10 WNW RSL 30
W HUT 10 W PNC TUL 15 NNE FYV 40 NNW LIT 25 N GLH 40 S GWO 30 N LUL
10 WNW GPT 20 NNW HUM 20 NNW POE GGG 35 SSE DUA SPS PVW TCC 25 WSW
TAD 20 SW FCL 10 WNW CYS 55 W CDR PIR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 30
SSW ORL 55 SSW GNV CTY 30 N CTY GNV 35 NNW DAB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 25 NNE TUS
50 N SAD TCS 4CR LVS 10 N DRO 35 ESE CNY 40 WSW 4HV 60 SE U24 45 S
EVW RWL 25 WNW CPR 30 NNW COD 20 NE DLN 40 NE S80 40 ENE EPH 55 ESE
BLI 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NE ELO MKT OMA FNB OJC UNO CBM 10 W CSG
50 NW AYS 35 S SAV ...CONT... 25 WSW 7R4 LCH LFK ACT 20 SSW BWD SJT
50 SE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS 15 WSW GSP
10 ESE HSS BKW EKN 10 E LBE 30 NNW PSB 10 SSW IPT CXY 10 ENE BWI 30
SSW WAL.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS
VLY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN FL
PEN....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC....

...ARKLATEX/GULF STATES INTO SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES**...
MODELS SUGGEST CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
STATES WILL REDEVELOP EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO PROGRESSION OF
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER... INCLUDING ONE NOW DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. 
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SURGE SOUTH/EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS
FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/THERMAL RIDGE.  THIS
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WEST NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED
RIVER VALLEY.  MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS RANGES FROM 1500 TO
2500 J/KG...WITH INHIBITION BECOMING WEAK IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.


FLORIDA...
STORMS ARE NOW INTENSIFYING WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NORTH OF MELBOURNE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE ENHANCED BY WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER FLOW...WHICH WILL PROGRESS EAST OF COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  UNTIL AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT SHIFTS OFFSHORE... RISK FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

ERN OK/ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY...
STORMS ARE NOW INCREASING IN LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHERE FORCING IS ENHANCED AHEAD
OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
THE OZARKS.  SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS.  

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NEAR CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED/GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER.  MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS BY THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA...POSSIBLY
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

...PLAINS**...
FOCUSED DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH...SHIFTING EAST OF THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...IS
ENHANCING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. 
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MAY
SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  AS ACTIVITY
ORGANIZES...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA. 
MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY STRENGTHEN UP TO
25-30 KT THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR AND
POSSIBLE ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION.  AS THIS OCCURS...INITIAL ISOLATED TORNADO/LARGE
HAIL THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY BROADER SCALE DAMAGING
WIND/ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS/FRONTAL ZONE
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS AREA THOUGH.  COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL NOT
REACH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...BY WHICH
TIME COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MINIMIZE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT
CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

..KERR.. 05/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.