[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230102
SWODY1
SPC AC 230100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
HUT 25 SE EMP 45 NNE JLN 40 NE HRO 60 S UNO 45 NNE LIT 25 SSW LIT 30
W HOT 10 W PGO 45 SW TUL 30 SSE END 35 E GAG 40 WSW P28 35 WSW HUT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 75 SSW GNT
35 ENE GNT 35 NE 4SL 20 S ALS 20 ENE ASE 40 SW LAR 35 S DGW 50 ESE
DGW 20 WNW AIA 25 E SNY 35 SW MCK 20 ESE HLC 20 ENE SLN 15 SW VIH 30
SSE BLV 20 NE HUF 40 ESE SBN 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 25 WNW ERI 25 WSW
LBE 15 NNE SHD 10 SW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT... 20 ESE SAV 20 SSW AGS
45 SE AHN 40 SW 0A8 25 NNE MLU 40 N DAL 45 W SPS 30 SW CDS 25 NW LBB
25 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 80 E LWT 40
ENE WEY 15 SW PIH 45 ENE OWY 35 SSW BOI 45 SW 3DU 10 ENE 3TH 35 NNE
63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS INTO SWRN
MO AND NWRN AR...

...NRN-ERN OK/SRN KS INTO SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING E-W ACROSS FAR NRN OK AND EWD TO NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER
REGION.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AR EXTENDED FROM THIS COMPLEX WWD TO NEAR FSM
AND THEN NNWWD TO NE OF TUL AND INTERSECTED THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT.

AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAD BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.  DESPITE THIS INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS INDICATED CONVECTION
HAS STRUGGLED TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE BASED
STORMS THUS FAR.  PRIND ARE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE
E-W FRONT ACROSS FAR NRN OK INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING AS A SSWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO 30 KT AND NOSES INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL OK.  STRONG
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND SUFFICIENT
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN MCS OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS THE LLJ
VEERS TO SWLY OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD ALONG/N OF
SYNOPTIC AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO ERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN-WRN AR.

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  ACTIVITY WILL THEN
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

...LOWER OH VALLEY...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
EXTEND SWWD TO WRN TN BY 12Z MONDAY.  THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WILL FURTHER STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
DECREASE IN ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
SWRN OH INTO SRN IND/WRN KY.

..PETERS.. 05/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.