[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
MLC 20 ENE CSM GAG 50 N GAG 35 WNW P28 25 SW HUT 50 ENE CNU 20 W SLO
25 SE DNV 40 NE LAF 20 NW FWA 35 E FWA 45 S FDY 45 SW CMH 40 E LEX
45 ESE BWG 50 ENE MKL 50 NNE LIT 25 NE MLC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SAV 20 SSW AGS
45 SE AHN 20 SSW GLH 20 SW TXK 40 N DAL 45 W SPS 30 SW CDS 25 NW LBB
25 SE HOB 80 SSE MRF ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 45 NW ONM 40 SW LAR 35 S
DGW 50 ESE DGW 20 WNW AIA 25 E SNY 35 SW MCK 20 ESE HLC 20 ENE SLN
10 ENE OJC 25 WSW SPI 45 SE MMO 35 ESE MKE 15 ESE MTW 30 NE RHI RRT
...CONT... 25 WNW ERI 25 WSW LBE 15 NNE SHD 10 SW RIC 25 SE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 70 SSW GGW
20 N BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 WSW DLN 50 NNE 27U 20 NW 3DU 50 ENE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PIE 35 NW AGR 35
SW VRB 15 SSE PBI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER FAR WRN KS. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS FAR NWRN OK EXTENDING INTO FAR SE KS AND SW
MO. CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK ASCENT CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. SCATTERED STORM INITIATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS AND
LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF WRN KS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE FROM
THE FRONT SWD WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE 4000 TO 5000 J/KG WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND LOWER 70S F. THE STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FROM THE BOUNDARY NWD WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT MOSTLY DUE TO STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
STORMS INITIATE. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WOULD MAKE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS
ACROSS FAR SRN KS AND FAR NRN OK. OTHERWISE...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN OK INTO WRN AR
TONIGHT WITH THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY HIGH INSTABILITY.

...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
NW FLOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER-LOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS IND...SRN IL INTO ERN MO. AS INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND SPREAD SEWD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THIS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

...ERN CO..
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MTNS WITH THE ACTIVITY
SPREADING SLOWLY EWD INTO THE CO PLAINS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED CONSIDERING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS VERY WEAK.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A HAIL POTENTIAL CONSIDERING
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEED 8.5 C/KM.

..BROYLES.. 05/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.