[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230627
SWODY1
SPC AC 230626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
AMA 20 SE AMA 30 NNE CVS 15 SSW TCC 40 SE RTN 10 NE PUB 45 ENE FCL
35 NE CDR 35 SW PIR HON 25 SSE YKN 40 WSW LNK 20 ENE RSL 20 WSW HUT
40 ENE ICT 30 E CNU 30 SE UMN 10 NNW LIT 35 WNW GLH 35 SSE ELD 15 NW
SHV 10 SSE PRX 20 ESE FSI 30 SW CSM 60 ENE AMA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 20
W RWI 25 NNE DAN 20 NNE LYH 45 NNE CHO 20 W DCA 20 ESE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAB 55 N PIE
...CONT... 45 SE HUM 35 E LCH 30 NNW GGG 30 WNW MWL 35 ESE BGS 20 NE
FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 65 SE ELP 45 SE ALM 30 WNW ROW 40 ENE 4CR 20
WSW LVS 45 NE 4SL 20 W ASE 50 WSW CAG VEL 40 NE U24 20 SSE DPG 20 NW
DPG 50 NE ENV 35 S BYI 40 NNE BYI 45 ESE WEY 45 WNW SHR 20 NNW 4BQ
55 N REJ 10 WSW DIK 10 ESE ISN 55 N ISN ...CONT... 55 W RRT 40 W AXN
15 NNW RWF 45 WNW DSM 45 WNW TBN 35 ENE JBR 40 WNW AND 45 E CLT 20
SE GSO 35 NW GSO 35 S JKL 20 SSW LUK 40 E SBN 15 NE MBL 10 E TVC 30
SSW OSC ...CONT... 60 E MTC 15 SE IPT 25 SSE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W ONM 20 NNW TCS
35 WSW TCS 45 ENE SAD 35 NNE SAD 45 WNW SAD 75 E PHX 65 SSW INW 25
NE PRC 30 SE GCN 30 N INW 45 WSW GUP 40 S GUP 30 W ONM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ENE 63S 35 NNE GEG
35 S 4OM 35 W EAT 45 SE SEA 20 NE OLM 15 N BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO AR/ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA NWWD TO HUDSON BAY
WILL MAINTAIN CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN STATES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION PER WV IMAGERY...WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.  FURTHER WEST...RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SWRN STATES.  THE NWD EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
TRACKS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/WRN CANADA INTO CENTRAL CANADA.

WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THEN TURN SEWD
OVER THE PLAINS TO GULF COAST/SERN STATES WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE E/SE
ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...REACHING THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS SWWD TO NERN CO BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WNWLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A
LEE TROUGH FROM ERN CO TO ERN NM...WITH ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
RETURNING MOISTURE NWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO/WRN KS INTO WRN NEB.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SWRN NEB BY
MID AFTERNOON.

PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
INTO THE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE HEATING AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS/NEB
PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN THE CAP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION
SHOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND
PEAK HEATING.

GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN NEB/NERN CO INTO NWRN KS... WHERE
THE NRN EXTENT OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW.  35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS LIKELY.  ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.  INCREASING SLY LLJ FROM TX
PANHANDLE NWD INTO KS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FROM NERN NM
NWD TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS INTO AR/ARKLATEX REGION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NRN
OK TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NEWD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
THIS BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING MORNING
MCS WILL BE THE FOCI FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF ERN OK INTO AR AND NWWD INTO SWRN MO/ SERN
KS ON THE NOSE OF SWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS.  AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF
OK/WRN AR INTO KS IS PROGGED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TODAY..GIVEN A
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING.  A CAP IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES OVER NRN-ERN OK BY 00Z. IF STORMS DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND THE LLJ DEVELOPS FURTHER WWD FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE INTO KS.

...MID ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH...IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM WRN PA TO THE TN VALLEY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.  THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION BY 18Z...WITH A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO
DEVELOP SEWD INTO ERN VA TODAY.  RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING OVER SRN MD/VA INTO NERN NC IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG TRAILING
SECONDARY FRONT WNWWD OVER VA COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS/STABILIZES.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO SOUTHEAST...
A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING SWWD OVER THE TN VALLEY TO AR WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...REACHING SERN GA TO NRN
LA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR /ESPECIALLY FROM AL EWD/ FOR ORGANIZED STORMS... WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY VALUES... STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.  PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A
SLIGHT RISK...IF CONFIDENCE IN OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA AND/OR AN
MCV PRODUCED FROM ONGOING MCS OVER SERN KS/NERN OK SUGGESTS A
GREATER FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 05/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.