[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221610
SWODY1
SPC AC 221609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
PGO 35 SE OKC 35 SSE GAG 25 NNW GAG 25 WNW P28 40 ENE CNU 50 S SZL
BLV 10 SSE LAF 20 ENE SBN GRR 20 N LAN 10 SSW DTW 55 E LUK 20 N JKL
20 SW LOZ 15 NW PGO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ERI LBE 15 E
CHO 10 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 70 SSW GGW
20 N BIL 25 SSE LVM 20 WSW DLN 50 NNE 27U 20 NW 3DU 60 NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 50 NE DRO
40 SW LAR 15 NE DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR 25 NNW SNY 30 S IML HLC 15
ESE SLN 25 ENE SZL 45 WNW STL 15 NNE SPI 35 ESE MMO 30 ESE MKE 20 SE
MTW 30 NE RHI RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PIE 20 ESE AGR
20 SSE PBI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV 30 N MCN 25
W ELD 15 ENE LTS 30 ESE PVW 25 SSE HOB 65 SSW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OH  VALLEY TO PORTION OF PLAINS
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER CONUS DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SW AND COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER NERN STATES.  STRONG
S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWD THRU WI AND THEN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO NRN
TX PANHANDLE.

ONTARIO SYSTEM WILL HEAD SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS OH VALLEY AND BECOMING STATIONARY WWD THRU SRN MO AND
NRN OK BY THIS EVENING.

...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE THE FRONTAL ZONE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL E/W VICINITY SRN MO  AND SRN KS/NRN OK. 
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THRU THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.  MLCAPES UPWARD TO
3000 J/KG ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON SRN FRINGE OF
STRONG WLYS TO THE N...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN INITIATE ALONG BOUNDARY.

THE CAP SHOULD HOLD THRU MUCH OF AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ONCE SFC TEMPS
REACH UPPER 90S BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...INITIATION COULD OCCUR VICINITY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN
DEVELOP AS BASES WILL BE HIGH LIMITING TORNADO THREAT. STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND PROPAGATE INTO THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS NRN OK INTO AR. AS MODE EVOLVES MORE INTO AN MCS AT LEAST A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

...OH VALLEY...
WILL HOLD ONTO A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS
OH VALLEY...HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR.  WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SPREADING SEWD WITH
THE S/WV CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES...STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD STILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND
AND MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL.

...E SLOPES CENTRAL ROCKIES...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MOVED WWD TO FRONT RANGE IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT. WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB  TO 1500 J/KG OR
HIGHER ALONG FRONT RANGE.  WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...30-40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM SUGGESTS THAT
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE MOVING OFF FRONT RANGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE MAIN THREAT. 
ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TOO FAR OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
WILL CONSIDER ADDING A SLIGHT IN 20Z OUTLOOK IF MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS THAN NOW EXPECTED COULD OCCUR.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.