[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221243
SWODY1
SPC AC 221242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW
ANJ PLN DTW CMH HTS JKL LOZ BNA MEM HOT 40 S MLC FSI CSM GAG P28 25
NNW JLN TBN BLV MTO LAF SBN MKG MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV 40 SSE CSG
45 NW JAN 40 NNW MWL 15 N BGS INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 20 NW ELP 15
SW 4CR 10 N ABQ 30 SSE GUC 25 WSW 4FC 40 SW LAR 15 NE DGW 50 WNW CDR
25 SW CDR 25 NNW SNY 10 NW GLD 55 NW GCK 15 ESE SLN 25 ENE SZL 45
WNW STL 20 W SPI 25 E PIA 10 WSW JVL 30 NNE RHI 40 W CMX 80 NNW CMX
...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 15 SW CAK 45 E LYH 10 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 S AGR MIA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM  MI AND THE LWR OH VLY SW
INTO THE OZARKS/SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER IMPULSE WHICH CRESTED SWRN STATES RIDGE YESTERDAY IS
NOW CENTERED NEAR INL. SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY
AND SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AS IT SHEARS SE ACROSS THE WI LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF NRN QUEBEC BLOCK.  FARTHER W...
STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEARING VANCOUVER ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE
E INTO AB/SASK...SERVING TO FURTHER FLATTEN SWRN RIDGE.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT NOW CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SE ACROSS THE OH VLY.  SWRN PART OF
SAME BOUNDARY SHOULD DECELERATE AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
SRN PARTS OF AR AND OK BY 12Z MONDAY.

...SRN PLNS/OZARKS...
TSTMS NOW OVER SRN MO/NRN AR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROWING ZONE OF
WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WLY BRANCH OF LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE JET WEAKENS A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.

IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE
TO 2500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP INVOF WEAKENING FRONT SETTLING S INTO
THE SRN PLNS AND NRN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW NO
APPARENT SMALL SCALE IMPULSE UPSTREAM TO ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
 BUT COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK STRONG CAP AND INITIATE A FEW SURFACE-BASED
STORMS OVER NRN OK...NRN AR AND SW MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STORM GUST FRONTS AS THE BOUNDARIES
MOVE GENERALLY S/SE INTO TONIGHT.

WHILE MID LEVEL NNW FLOW WILL BE MODEST ON EDGE OF STRONG UPPER
RIDGE ...AMPLE /30-35 KT/ DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN AR/MO.  STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES
AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE ACTIVITY
MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS THIS EVENING.  LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL REMAIN MODEST...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENT TO EXTEND A LIMITED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND/HAIL SE ALONG
PERIPHERY OF CAP INTO NRN MS BY EARLY MONDAY.

...GRT LKS/LWR OH VLY INTO SE MO...
MORE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT
CROSSING MI IL/IND AND WRN KY. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN MI TO AROUND I500 J/KG IN SRN IL/WRN IND. 
THESE VALUES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN A
SUFFICIENT DEGREE OF UPLIFT.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THE LATTER POINT.

WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING THE REGION LIKELY TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOBE
OF VORTICITY WELL DEPICTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ATTM CROSSING CNTRL
WI.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND GFS
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST DCVA WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO MI
AND NRN IND.  POINTS FARTHER SW SHOULD REMAIN ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE
OF UPPER JET...ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM SRN MI INTO SRN IL/IND/SE MO...WHERE
40-50 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO SURFACE
FRONT. WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  BUT OVERALL SETUP SUPPORTS FORECAST OF AT
LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.

...FRONT RANGE...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING IN ZONE OF OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT/STRONG HEATING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE CNTRL RCKYS.  DEEP SHEAR WILL DECREASE FROM SRN WY INTO
SRN CO/NRN NM...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT THROUGHOUT REGION FOR
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH BASED...PROMOTING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

...N GA/WRN CAROLINAS...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
IN UNCAPPED...WEAKLY CONFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SRN APLCNS. 
30-40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SEVERE THREAT.  WELL-MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYERS MAY
YIELD A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH SOME STORMS.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.