[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220554
SWODY1
SPC AC 220552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WNW
ANJ PLN DTW CMH HTS JKL LOZ BNA MEM HOT 40 S MLC FSI CSM GAG P28 25
NNW JLN TBN BLV MTO LAF SBN MKG MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SAV MGM 45 NW
JAN 40 NNW MWL BGS INK 65 SSW MRF ...CONT... 20 NW ELP 30 WSW 4CR
ABQ 30 SSE GUC 25 WSW 4FC 40 SW LAR DGW 50 WNW CDR 25 SW CDR SNY 10
NW GLD 55 NW GCK SLN OJC 45 WNW STL 25 WSW DEC BMI 80 NNW CMX
...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 15 SW CAK 45 E LYH 10 E ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 30 S AGR MIA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OK TO LOWER OH
VALLEY...THEN NWD OVER PORTIONS MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
MOST PROMINENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE LARGE
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SWRN NM...AND PERSISTENT CYCLONE OVER NEW
ENGLAND.  UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
SRN MB/NERN ND/NWRN MN -- IS FCST TO TURN SEWD OUT OF LONGWAVE RIDGE
POSITION AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES STATES EARLY IN
PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BECOME OPEN-WAVE TROUGH -- ENTRAINED
INTO SWRN QUADRANT OF CYCLONIC FLOW BELT ENCIRCLING GREAT LAKES
VORTEX -- AROUND END OF PERIOD.  BROAD PLUME OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
COVER CONUS BETWEEN CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MID-ATLANTIC/TIDEWATER
REGION.

AT SFC...COLD/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM N-CENTRAL MN TO
SERN NEB...S-CENTRAL KS...NERN NM.  BY 23/00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD
STALL ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN NM EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL
OK...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD OVER OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY...AND
EWD ACROSS REGION AROUND LM.

...SRN PLAINS TO OZARKS...
INTENSE SFC HEATING AND MIXING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE
INITIALLY STRONG CAP THROUGHOUT DAY...RESULTING IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG PORTIONS FRONTAL ZONE.  MOST
PROBABLE TIME WINDOW FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IS 22/21Z-23/01Z. 
POCKETS OF UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR REGION BASED ON CURRENT SFC
ANALYSIS AND PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/MIXING CHARACTERISTICS. 
SFC DEW POINTS IN INFLOW LAYER...ALONG WITH MLCAPES...WILL LESSEN
WITH WWD EXTENT FROM THERE...BUT STILL SHOULD BE IN 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING HAIL/GUSTS.  BUOYANCY WILL WEAKEN EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO
BECAUSE OF LOWER SFC THETAE...HOWEVER SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR BOTH
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS.  ONE OR TWO MCS MAY EVOLVE DURING EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MOVING SWD OR SEWD OVER ERN OK/AR WITH POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...
RESIDUAL SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONE NOW ORIENTED NEARLY MERIDIONALLY
FROM SRN MN SWD ACROSS MO AND AR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AMIDST
PREVAILING WLY/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE NOW TO ITS E WILL
REMAIN COMMON IN MANY AREAS OF OH VALLEY AND E OF MS RIVER...WITH
NARROW PLUME OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY AIDED 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY RELATIVE TO SRN PLAINS/OZARKS
REGION...HOWEVER WEAKER CINH AND FRONTAL LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
FORCE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. BUOYANCY WILL BE
MARGINAL...PEAK MLCAPES UNDER 1000 J/KG FROM ABOUT CENTRAL
INDIANA/ERN IL NWD AND UNDER 1500 J/KG ELSEWHERE.  THIS LIKELY WILL
LIMIT GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO AFTERNOON...BUT ANY SUSTAINED
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITHIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE.  EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT WLY
COMPONENT -- LIMITING NEAR FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE
AND FIXED-LAYER 0-6 KM SHEARS 60-70 KT FROM SRN IL/INDIANA SWWD
ACROSS WRN KY/MO BOOTHEEL REGION.

...FRONT RANGE...CO/NRN NM...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM COMBINATION OF
1. OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE ASCENT IN SOME AREAS AND
2. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT I-25 CORRIDOR
FROM ROUGHLY CYS-LVS.
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WITH SWD EXTENT...WHICH ALSO WILL BE IN INCREASINGLY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DEEPLY MIXED INFLOW
LAYERS...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
FROM MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS.

...WRN CAROLINAS...
PROGGED AFTERNOON HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS 50S F PRODUCE NEARLY
UNCAPPED FCST SOUNDINGS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...AMIDST
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...HOWEVER MLCAPES
APCHG 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALES. 40 KT MIDLEVEL NWLYS
AND VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD EFFECTIVE SHEARS
40-50 KT.  WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS SUPPORT ANY HAIL AND
STRONG-SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS GENERATED TO REACH SFC UNDER MOST VIGOROUS
CELLS. LACK OF BOTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HIGHER CAPE
PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL RISK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.