[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220103
SWODY1
SPC AC 220101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
RSL 35 W LNK 20 E OFK 25 S FSD 25 NNE FSD FRM ALO BRL 45 WNW STL TBN
UMN TUL END 40 SSW RSL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE 7R4 HUM 25 WSW
BVE 35 S BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CTY DAB
...CONT... 55 SSW MIA 45 W PBI 20 WSW AGR 15 SSW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 45 N SHD LBE 30
ENE FKL 25 ESE ROC UCA 35 SE GFL 20 ENE BDL 25 E ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCS 85 NW TCS GNT ABQ
40 SW 4CR TCS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE MQT MTW MKE
CGX LAF IND 35 S BMG EVV POF FSM 55 WNW MLC GAG LBL GCK 35 E GRI FSD
45 W AXN FAR P24 65 NNE ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO WRN IA/WRN
MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
SFC AND UPPER AIR CHARTS ARE DOMINATED SYNOPTICALLY BY THREE
DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC...VERTICALLY STACKED...NRN-STREAM CYCLONES --
CENTERED OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...SWRN MANITOBA...AND OFFSHORE
VANCOUVER ISLAND.  LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SWRN NM DOMINATES
PATTERN ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS.

AT SFC...OCCLUDED FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWD TO SWRN
MN..COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS ERN NEB...N-CENTRAL KS AND SERN CO. 
EXPECT COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE EWD ACROSS MN AND MUCH OF IA
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...AND SEWD INTO NWRN MO AND S-CENTRAL KS. 
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT...LEFT BEHIND BY E COAST SYSTEM...EXTENDS SWD
FROM SWRN MN ACROSS EXTREME WRN IA...SSEWD ACROSS MKC AREA INTO
OZARKS.  THIS FEATURE MAY DRIFT EWD BEFORE BEING CAUGHT BY
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT OVER IA...AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER
OZARKS.  IN BETWEEN THESE FRONTS...DOUBLE DRYLINE STRUCTURE IS
EVIDENT.  WRN DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER
N-CENTRAL KS SWWD TO OK PANHANDLE THEN GENERALLY SWD ACROSS W TX. 
ERN DRYLINE -- FROM EXTREME E-CENTRAL NEB SWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK --
DENOTES BOUNDARY BETWEEN SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S W OF
STATIONARY FRONT...AND MORE STRONGLY HEATED/MIXED AIR MASS WITH 50S
F DEW POINTS OVER WRN PORTIONS OK/KS.  ERN DRYLINE HAS BEGUN TO
RETROGRADE OVER OK...A TREND THAT SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY OVER KS UNTIL
BOTH DRYLINES ARE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
REF SPC WW 311 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST NOWCAST
INFO.  LINE OF HIGH BASED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL
KS...ALONG SFC FRONT AND BETWEEN DRYLINES WHERE FRONTAL ASCENT AND
INTENSE HEATING/MIXING HAVE REALIZED 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...PER RUC
SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED DDC RAOB.  FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN
IA...OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONGLY CONDITIONAL.  STRONG/DEEP CAPPING
LAYER EVIDENT FOR ML PARCELS IN 00Z OAX/TOP RAOBS IS GREATLY
LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION.  ANY
SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT NEXT 1-2 HOURS -- BEFORE NEAR-SFC LAYER
DIABATICALLY STABILIZES -- LIKELY REQUIRES LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN
FRONTAL ASCENT.  AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL...SEVERE GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES...GIVEN A SUSTAINED
TSTM.  OTHERWISE...AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY OVER AND E OF WARM/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT.

POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR MCS TO EVOLVE FROM KS ACTIVITY AND/OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/E OF WARM/STATIONARY FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED FARTHER N
WHERE OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
THETAE AIR MASS.  ISOLATED HAIL STILL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY ELEVATED
ACTIVITY THAT CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION...GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEARS 40-50 KT ANTICIPATED.

..EDWARDS.. 05/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.