[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 212001
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
CMX 35 ESE AUW 40 N PIA 25 SW STL 25 SSE TBN 10 SSW UMN 30 ENE PNC
10 NNE P28 35 SSW RSL 40 E HLC 10 NW HSI 30 N OFK 20 SE BKX 65 S FAR
40 WNW GFK 65 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SBY 35 SW NHK
10 ENE CHO 25 SSE MGW 10 NNW PIT 30 NNW ERI ...CONT... 30 WNW EFK 25
ENE LEB ORH 20 E ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW ANJ 25 WNW BEH
30 SE MVN 40 SE POF 55 NW LIT 25 N MLC 25 WSW OKC 45 SW GAG 25 SW
LBL 45 N EHA 50 S GLD 35 N GLD 45 E ANW 20 SE HON 35 WNW ATY 35 W
JMS 50 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 20 SE JAX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...MN/WI/ERN DAKOTAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER LOW
CLOSING OFF OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO ERN ND. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING QUICKLY
EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...A WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION
AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT STORM
INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS MN REACHING WI BY LATE THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS
WRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN MN AND
THIS SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. AS
SBCAPE VALUES INCREASE AND STRONG ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING EWD INTO
CNTRL MN THIS EVENING. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO WI LATER
TONIGHT...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.

...ERN NEB/IA/KS/MO...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM
SRN KS EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
2000 TO 3000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
PRESENT ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK
OF EXPANDING CUMULUS. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS...STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP IN ERN NEB AND SPREAD SEWD INTO SW IA AND FAR
NE KS.

PROFILERS IN NE NEB CURRENTLY SHOW 45 KTS AT 6 KM WHICH IS CREATING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM ALONG WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN SE NEB AND NE KS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS. A STORM
CLUSTER SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINEAR
MCS SPREADING SEWD ACROSS NE KS AND NW MO THIS EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY HELP SUSTAIN THE
SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MCS TRACKS INTO CNTRL MO AND SE
KS.

..BROYLES.. 05/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.