[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210557
SWODY1
SPC AC 210555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35
E AUW DBQ 35 SSE IRK SGF UMN BVO 35 NE ICT HUT 45 NNE DDC HLC 30 ESE
BBW 50 SW YKN ATY FAR DVL 80 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB ORH 10 WSW
BID ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF LYH 25 ENE SSU 30 W MGW YNG 25
NNE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB CEW ABY 30
WSW CHS 30 SSW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE ANJ LAN BMG
POF 20 WSW PBF 45 SE PGO 10 WNW MLC OKC AMA 50 NNW TCC 45 SW PUB 15
WSW DEN 15 NW FCL CYS SNY 40 SSW ANW 9V9 45 NNE MBG MLS 40 NE LWT 25
N HVR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER-MID MO
VALLEY...CENTRAL/NERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE --
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWRN
NM/SERN AZ.  MEAN RIDGE WILL BE PENETRATED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER WA/ORE/ID.  BY 22/00Z...THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLOSED
LOW OVER SRN MB -- WITH ROUGHLY 130 KT UPPER JET ACROSS PORTIONS
MT/DAKOTAS.  UPPER LOW SHOULD TURN SEWD TOWARD NRN MN BY END OF
PERIOD.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW DEEPENING OVER SERN MT/NERN WY WILL LIFT NEWD
AND BECOME NEARLY STACKED WITH UPPER LOW EARLY IN PERIOD...AS SFC
COLD FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN.  FRONT IS FCST TO
MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEB AND SWD OVER ERN CO...REACHING WI...NWRN
MO...AND S-CENTRAL/SWRN KS BY 22/12Z.  MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW-
REINFORCED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD ACROSS NRN FL.  NWRN SEGMENT
OF SAME FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AND NEARLY MERIDIONALLY
ORIENTED FROM SRN MO ACROSS WRN IA INTO SRN MN.

...CENTRAL/NERN PLAINS...
SEVERE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD BETWEEN ERN SD AND
NERN ND...WITH WIND DAMAGE MAIN THREAT.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON INVOF COLD FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH 0-1 AND 0-3 KM SRH ABOVE 150 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
60-70 KT OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN MN.  STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BE NEAR CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH MAY HELP TO
OFFSET EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AGAINST LOW LEVEL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION.  DAMAGING WIND...A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER S...CAP STRENGTH WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN LATER AND
PERHAPS MORE DISCRETE SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA HAS GREATEST PROBABILITY OF DEEP
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.  MEAN WIND WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY NORMAL TO ORIENTATION OF
FORCING BOUNDARY...INDICATING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE STORMS
FOR LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.  MOST FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE IN NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND FOREGOING
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...FROM SRN MN SWD.  SFC DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE MID 50S TO MID 60S F OVER MOST OF THIS
ZONE...WHICH WILL BE INFLOW REGION FOR ANY NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT.
 FCST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS WRN IA -- INVOF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT --
INDICATE 0-3 KM SRH UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG...AMIDST 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. STRENGTHENING CAP AND WEAKENING SHEAR FARTHER SW INTO SERN
NEB AND NRN/WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY REDUCED
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK IN REGION FROM WRN/CENTRAL IA
SWD THROUGH MO VALLEY TOWARD NWRN MO/NERN KS...NEAR NOSE OF 30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ.  PROGGED MCS MOTION VECTORS FROM LATEST ETA AND ETA-KF
RUNS INDICATE SWWD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WITH SSEWD STEERING
FLOW...WITH NET MOTION GENERALLY SWD ACROSS MO AND/OR ERN KS. 
ELEVATED MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN INFLOW REGION.  MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...OCCASIONAL HAIL POSSIBLE. 
MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION THAN PROGGED BY ETA/SPECTRAL WOULD RESULT
IN FASTER/MORE SLY MOTION...THEREFORE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
ACROSS PORTIONS OZARKS.

...NRN/ERN FL...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED INVOF RESIDUAL
FRONT AND SEA BREEZE.  E COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO SHORE
GIVEN PREVAILING PREFRONTAL WLYS IN BOUNDARY LAYER.  GIVEN NEGATIVE
EFFECT OF THOSE WLYS ON CONVERGENCE AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AND
WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR....ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
SMALL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE
MULTICELLS WITH RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES POSSIBLE. MOST
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR FOR BRIEF PERIOD INVOF BOUNDARY
INTERSECTIONS.

..EDWARDS/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.