[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211249
SWODY1
SPC AC 211248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CMX 35
E AUW DBQ 25 SW BRL 15 NNE TBN 10 SSE SGF 30 WNW JLN HUT 45 NNE DDC
15 NW HLC 25 NNW GRI 30 SW YKN ATY FAR DVL 80 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ORF 30 WSW ORF
LYH 25 ENE SSU 30 W MGW YNG 25 NNE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EFK LEB ORH 10 WSW
BID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE APN 15 N FNT 50
N SDF 25 NNW DYR 50 SW ARG 45 NNW HOT 40 SSW TUL 35 NW PNC 30 N LBL
30 ESE RTN 45 SW PUB 40 NW COS 15 NW FCL 15 ESE CYS SNY 40 SSW ANW
30 SW 9V9 35 NW MBG 30 SSE DIK 25 ENE GDV 50 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE MOB CEW 30 SW
ABY 30 NNE AYS 30 SSW CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY
SWD INTO THE MID/LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION THIS
PERIOD AS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE NRN HI PLNS
CONTINUES E ACROSS ND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SOMEWHAT 
S OF E LATER IN THE PERIOD AS BLOCK HOLDS FIRM OVER NRN QUEBEC.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL ND SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY
DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES TOWARD LK WINNIPEG LATER TODAY/EARLY
SUNDAY.  NRN PART OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E INTO
WRN MN BY THIS EVENING...AND INTO WI/NW IL BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THE
MORE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MORE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE
MID AND LWR MO VLYS.  BLOCKING PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP N/S WARM
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPR MS VLY...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE SOME NEWD ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MO.

...CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY...
MCS WITH EMBEDDED MCV NOW OVER NERN ND HAS MOVED BEYOND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY AXIS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT HEADS ENE TO THE
INL AREA LATER THIS MORNING.  BAND OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS
EXTENDING S FROM THE MCV INTO IA SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY E WILL LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF THE WA/ORE
CST HAS UNDERGONE STRONG DEEPENING OVERNIGHT.  THIS...IN TURN...
SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM NRN PLNS
IMPULSE.  AS A RESULT...STOUT CAP WILL LIKELY PERSIST...AND MAY EVEN
STRENGTHEN...OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/UPR MS VLY REGION S OF ASSOCIATED
JET MAX CROSSING THE NRN PLNS.

SEWD ADVANCE OF NRN PLNS COLD FRONT...AND PRECIPITATION INTO DRY CP
AIR MASS ADVECTING NWWD FROM THE MID MS VLY...WILL KEEP AXIS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER SLIGHT RISK AREA VERY CONFINED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  AVERAGE DEWPOINTS SHOULD...NEVERTHELESS... RISE INTO
THE UPPER 50S LATER TODAY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. LOWER 60S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
NEB INTO KS.

STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION FROM THE RED
RVR VLY SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA.  COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE...EXPECT THAT RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM N TO S ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

AMPLE /35-40 KT/ DEEP W TO NWLY SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS IN
SLIGHT RISK AREA.  WHILE LINEAR FORCING OF COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN MN...SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS.  THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE GREATEST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE NEB/NW IA...AS CAP IS BREACHED
IN REGION OF MAXIMUM SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 3000 J
PER KG/.  GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM IN ERN NEB/IA AND NRN MO LATER THIS
EVENING AS SEWD TURN OF NRN PLNS IMPULSE LOWERS HEIGHTS ACROSS
REGION.  COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS THAT COULD EXTEND A RISK FOR HIGH WIND S/SW INTO CNTRL AND SRN
PARTS OF KS/MO EARLY SUNDAY.

..NRN/ERN FL...
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF RESIDUAL COLD FRONT
OVER THE NRN PART OF THE STATE AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  E
COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO SHORE GIVEN PREVAILING
PREFRONTAL WLYS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW TO MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK....AND MORNING RAOBS SHOW RATHER LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES.  THUS...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LOW.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH RISK OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
INVOF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS AS AVERAGE MLCAPE RISES TO AROUND 1500
J/KG.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.