[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210113
SWODY1
SPC AC 210111

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 30
SE AXN FSD 60 SSW MHE 35 NNE CDR GCC 40 NW COD 35 WNW 3HT 60 ENE LWT
55 NNW MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
JAX GNV 30 S CTY ...CONT... 30 S BVE 35 N LFT 55 WSW MLU ELD 30 NE
ELD MGM 40 ESE MCN 45 SSE AGS 20 ESE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL STC SPW
OFK 35 NNW BBW MHN 60 NE DGW 35 NNE CPR RIW BPI OGD 65 NW ENV 45 ENE
EUG CLM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW HUM LFT POE
SHV HOT PBF HSV 15 NW TYS 20 NNW HKY FAY HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL
PLAIN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DAKOTAS....ERN
MT...NERN WY...WRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE RIDGE -- EXTENDING FROM SERN AZ/SWRN NM
NEWD ACROSS MN TO HUDSON BAY AREA -- REMAINS DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURE.  BELT OF NNWLY TO NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF ERN CONUS
BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND GA.  THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE
CAROLINAS COAST BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...WSWLY JET CORE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE FROM PACIFIC NW ENEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES.  EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER WA/ORE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS WRN MT TONIGHT.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE OVER SERN CONUS HAS BEEN MODULATED BY
COLLECTIVE SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURVING FROM OFFSHORE SC WWD
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS GA/AL...WITH SFC TROUGH WWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN MS.
 FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED NWWD OVER OZARKS THEN NNWWD
TOWARD MN/DAKOTAS BORDER REGION.  SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
NERN ND SWWD TO EXTREME NWRN SD...NEAR PRESENT LOCATION OF WELL
DEFINED SUPERCELL...THEN STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER WSWWD INTO
LEE-SIDE CYCLONE OVER EXTREME N-CENTRAL WY.  SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE
NEWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS ND TONIGHT...WITH FRONT STALLING 100-150 NM
TO ITS ENE.  DRYLINE IS ANALYZED FROM NRN WY LOW ESEWD TO SWRN
PERIPHERY OF BLACK HILLS...THEN SSEWD INTO WRN KS.

...SERN CONUS...
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED
OUTFLOW/TROUGH BOUNDARIES...MOVING SWD TOWARD GULF COAST.  AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE...AND
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR GIVEN NLY FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK SWLY/WLY SFC WINDS.  SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
 REF SPC WWS 302...304 AND 306 -- ALONG WITH RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS -- FOR LATEST NOWCAST INFO.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER APPROXIMATELY 06Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE...AND AS ANY
REMAINING INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER NOT AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
STABILIZES FROM DIABATIC SFC COOLING EFFECTS.

...NRN PLAINS...
TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE
1. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ERN ND/NWRN MN BETWEEN
FRONTS...IN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS...AND
2. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM NWRN SD ACROSS S-CENTRAL MT.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
RELATED TO BACKED FLOW ALONG/BEHIND FRONT.  MT ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN
OR BECOME ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO POCKET OF MINIMIZED SFC THETAE
ANALYZED NEAR GDV.  MEANWHILE DAMAGING HAIL/WIND ARE DISTINCT
THREATS FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AND TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

REF SPC WWS 303/305 AND LATEST ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOWCAST INFO.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO REMAIN OPTIMIZED
ALONG BOTH FRONTS...ENHANCING SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AS LONG AS
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISCRETE.  MCS IS FCST TO EVOLVE FROM WRN ND/NWRN
SD AREA ENEWD ACROSS MAINLY ND TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL. BOTH AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL STRADDLE
AXIS OF 50-60 KT LLJ AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM-RELATIVE
FLOWS JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW -- WRN COMPLEX SHOULD POSE MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

...SRN ID...
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AHEAD OF WA/ORE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH -- WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  MODIFIED
BOI RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER
BENEATH 400-700 J/KG MLCAPE..AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  EXPECT
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK WHEN SFC
COOLING REMOVES MOST MLCAPE AND STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 05/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.