[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 202001
SWODY1
SPC AC 202000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
INL 45 WNW BRD 25 ESE BKX 20 W FSD 60 SSW MHE 20 NNE VTN 35 NW RAP
50 NNE SHR 55 ENE BIL 75 E LWT 65 SW GGW 20 WNW OLF 60 NNE ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
MOB 25 W GPT 15 W MCB 30 ESE MLU 15 W GLH 40 WSW UOX 10 W MSL 50 WNW
AHN 20 E ILM ...CONT... 15 ENE JAX 25 NNE CTY 30 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE INL STC 30 SSW
SPW OFK 35 NNW BBW 25 W MHN 60 NE DGW 35 NNE CPR 25 E RIW 35 WNW RKS
20 SW OGD 65 NW ENV 80 SE BNO 25 S ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW BVE 30 W HUM
POE 15 E GGG 25 ESE PRX 30 SSW PGO 50 NW LIT 35 NE DYR 35 E BWG 20
ESE JKL 20 NE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN US...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...SERN US...
THREE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE LINES ARE ONGOING ACROSS AL..GA AND SC.
THE LINES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD INTO AN INSTABILITY AXIS
LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MS EXTENDING ESEWD TO SRN SC WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SEWD THIS EVENING...THE ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST ASCENT
LOCATED ACROSS GA WHERE THE LARGEST CONVECTIVE LINE IS LOCATED. A
MOIST AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC AND THIS COMBINED
WITH VEERED SFC WINDS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
WIND DAMAGE WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS AS THE
LINE MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF GA AND SRN SC.

FARTHER WEST IN CNTRL AL AND ERN MS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES PARTIALLY DUE TO A
MID-LEVEL JET NOSING SWD THROUGH THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN 850 MB
JET IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER CNTRL AL. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER
WEST ACROSS WRN MS...SRN AR AND NRN LA...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM NRN WY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW SD AND CNTRL ND. AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
STRONG ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A 
MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F AND SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS NEAR THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS EVENING.
BACKED SFC WINDS IN SERN MT AND SWRN ND WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS DEVELOP AND TRACK ENEWD NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.
AS STRONG ASCENT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND ERN DAKOTAS WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO FAR WRN MN LATE.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.