[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201554
SWODY1
SPC AC 201552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT
BJI AXN BKX MHE 9V9 RAP 81V GCC SHR BIL 3HT 10 N LWT 70 NE LWT 25
NNW MOT 75 NNW DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S
GPT 40 ESE MCB 20 S HEZ MLU 40 W GLH 35 SSW DYR 40 NE MKL 25 NW BNA
60 SSE TYS 15 WNW CAE 10 SSE FLO 10 SW ILM ...CONT... 10 E JAX 25 W
CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 15 NNE STC 30 SSW
SPW 10 ESE OFK 15 ENE LBF 45 WNW CDR 20 WNW CPR 55 ESE OWY 40 E 4LW
4BK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HUM 15 ESE POE
35 NNE TYR 40 NNE ADM 25 NE TUL 25 SSE JBR 30 N LEX 25 SSW SHD WAL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SWRN U.S.  WILL EXPAND EWD INTO PLAINS TODAY AS A
FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PAC NW TO NRN
PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD.  S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS TN
VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF SERN COAST TO NERN GULF BY 12Z SAT.  FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM DELMARVA WWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.  LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF PAC NW S/WV WILL LEAD
TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT SERN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING
ACROSS DAKOTAS TONIGHT.

...SERN STATES...

A WARM AND MOIST SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDES TN VALLEY S/WV AND
WEAK COOL FRONT. BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION NOW INTO NRN
GA/AL WILL FOCUS RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MLCAPES CLIMB TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND ANY CAPPING
DISSIPATES.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT WRN TN.  VEERING SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS
ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE MULTICELL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SHORT LINES/BOWS.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD NERN GULF COAST THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES SEWD ENHANCING SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION.

...NRN PLAINS...
AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS VICINITY SERN MT/WY BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF S/W APPROACHING FROM THE W... SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY WRN DAKOTAS AND ERN MT.  WITH 50 SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALREADY AVAILABLE IN THIS AREA...STRONG HEATING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO GENERATE MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS
ERN MT INTO WRN DAKOTAS.  VEERING HODOGRAPHS WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF
50-60 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ONCE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION IS INITIATED.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR ERN MT 21-00Z PERIOD
WITH STORMS THEN TRACKING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. 
WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS...PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORM MODE
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH WILL CONTINUE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS ND/NRN SD.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.