[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 192004
SWODY1
SPC AC 192002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
PRX 20 NNW DUA 30 SSE OKC 25 SSE END 30 NW PNC 20 SE EMP 40 SW IRK
15 SSW CID 35 W DBQ 25 SSW LNR 20 SSW MKE 40 W FDY 10 S CMH 15 WSW
CRW 25 ENE 5I3 25 SSW 5I3 10 NW CSV PBF TXK 10 NE PRX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW INL 35 WSW HIB
55 S DLH 40 SE MTW 10 SW CLE 15 SSE MRB 15 SE SBY ...CONT... 30 SW
CRE 20 N CHS 25 NW SAV 30 NNW JAX 30 ENE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 30
SW GPT 20 SSE MCB 30 WSW HEZ 45 SSW SHV 15 S ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW
LRD ...CONT... 15 SSW P07 10 NW BGS 25 NNW CDS 25 WSW P28 20 E SLN
35 NE MHK 35 WSW LWD 25 WNW DSM FRM 50 N ATY 55 ENE MBG 20 SSW MBG
25 WSW PHP 30 SW DGW 50 WNW OGD 60 NE SVE 15 WSW EKA ...CONT... 60
NNE FCA 55 SSW CTB 20 SE GTF 25 NE LWT 25 WSW GGW 55 NNE GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...MID-MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER WI
MOVING SEWD. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD STRONG VERTICAL
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT EXISTS FROM NRN IL
EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL IND. STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S
F...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEED
40 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE TORNADO THREAT ENHANCED IN CNTRL AND SRN IND
WHERE SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED. THE
TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREATS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS CURRENTLY WEAKER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN
TN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR A HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH A TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS.

AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THE
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...MOVING SEWD ACROSS KY
AND TN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE LINE SHOULD BE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WITH A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE NEB WITH AN INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM NORTH TX EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN KS. ALONG THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND ARE RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SWD
ACROSS ERN KS AND CNTRL MO...SHOULD INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS EARLY
THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED...THE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SSEWD INTO ERN OK AND ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS EVENING IN SE KS SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 45 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ONCE STORMS INITIATE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY ...VERTICAL SHEAR AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.