[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200104
SWODY1
SPC AC 200102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSS
RMG 40 S MSL TUP UOX 40 SW JBR UNO TBN JEF 25 NW UIN PIA RFD 35 ENE
RFD CGX 25 SE CGX 10 E SBN CMH UNI 30 E 5I3 HSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 40 NNW CEW LUL
HEZ 30 NNE SHV PRX 30 WNW ADM 45 SW END ICT MKC MLI LNR MSN MKG MTC
DUJ DOV 40 E SBY ...CONT... 45 SSW CHS SAV 30 ESE AYS GNV 50 W ORL
SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 N GFK GFK 50 NW
ABR PHP DGW 50 S TWF OWY BNO RDM EUG 40 NW OTH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF INDIANA/IL SEWD TO SRN
APPALACHIANS AND SWWD TO ERN OZARK REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE REMAINS ANTICYCLONE OVER SWRN DESERTS
--- WITH RIDGE NEWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY.  AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN BUILDING E OF THAT RIDGE...PRONOUNCED UPPER LOW NOW
OVER WI/IL BORDER REGION WILL MOVE SEWD...CROSSING OH VALLEY AT
INDIANA/KY BORDER BY END OF PERIOD.  THIS WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO NWLY OR NNWLY OVER MID/LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION.

AT SFC...VERY COMPLEX PATTERN IS ANALYZED AND ONLY SUMMARIZED HERE. 
SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LOOSELY EXTENDS FROM LOWER CHESAPEAKE/TIDEWATER
REGION WNWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INDIANA TO SFC LOW
OVER NRN IL...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT OVER NERN MO...NERN KS AND SWRN
NEB.  SFC CYCLONE SHOULD REDEVELOP EWD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER WV
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT REVERSING COURSE AND MOVING OVER KY
AS COLD FRONT -- REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. NUMEROUS
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED BETWEEN NRN/WRN NC AND NRN
IL...EFFECTIVELY ADJUSTING FRONTAL ZONE SWD IN SEGMENTED FASHION. 
VERY WEAK/RESIDUAL FRONT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS
IMAGERY FROM SRN IL WSWWD ACROSS OZARKS TO SWRN KS AND N-CENTRAL
OK...INTERSECTING DRYLINE OVER NWRN OK.

...GREAT LAKES STATES...LOWER OH AND MID MS VALLEYS...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL FROM
NERN TN/ERN KY NWWD INTO IL.  REF FOLLOWING SPC WATCHES --
289..290...292...293...294 -- ALONG WITH LATEST RELATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS...FOR SHORT-TERM FCST DETAILS ON THIS SITUATION.

TWO MCS SCENARIOS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ATTM...
1. EVOLUTION OF LARGE KY CLUSTER AND SEWD MOTION ACROSS REMAINDER
CENTRAL/ERN KY AND ERN TN...SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING SWD AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH TIME.
2. ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL AND NWRN INDIANA MAY BACKBUILD WWD AS IT
MOVES SEWD...RESULTING IN NET SWD MOTION IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LAST
SEVERAL ETA RUNS OF CORFIDI MCS MOTION VECTORS.  CONVECTION THEN
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS REMAINDER IL/INDIANA INTO WRN KY/TN AND PERHAPS
ERN  MO...ALONG AND W OF OUTFLOW FROM NUMBER 1.

DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT CONSIDERING VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS EVIDENT IN ILX RAOB.  SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE
EVIDENT FARTHER S FROM OZARKS TO TN VALLEY...S OF WEAK/SRN
FRONT...WITH MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG.

...SRN PLAINS...
WEAK CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING HAVE PRECLUDED
ORGANIZED/DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/S OF WEAK SRN FRONT AND
E OF DRYLINE...DESPITE POCKETS OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MID 60S-LOW 70S F DEW POINTS.  ISOLATED AND VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER ERN OK...ESPECIALLY
INVOF RESIDUAL N-S OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUGGEST PROBABILITIES HAVE
MARGINALIZED TO BELOW CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS.

....NRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS OVER
PORTIONS CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS.  AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL BUOYANCY BECAUSE OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
AND RELATIVELY DRY SFC DEW POINTS 40S/50S F. THIS YIELDS MLCAPES
UNDER 500 J/KG.  SFC-BASED BUOYANCY GOES AWAY IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS WITH LOSS OF 2-3 DEG C SFC TEMPS.  SHORT-TERM
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...BUT THREAT IS TOO
ISOLATED AND TRANSIENT TO WARRANT CATEGORICAL UPGRADE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.