[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191629
SWODY1
SPC AC 191628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
IRK MLI JVL MKE SBN FWA UNI BKW 35 SW BLF TRI CSV MEM PBF TXK PRX
ADM OKC END ICT FLV 30 N IRK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GPT 20 SSE MCB
30 WSW HEZ 45 SSW SHV 15 S ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 70 SW
P07 35 ESE BGS 40 W CSM 25 ENE GAG 35 SSW MHK 10 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM
ALO 20 WNW MKT 50 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG 45 NNE PHP 60 SSW PHP 50 NNE LAR
25 NNW EVW 35 NNE ENV 10 N EKO 55 NNE WMC 70 SSE BNO 40 NE 4LW 30
SSE LMT 45 E ACV ACV ...CONT... 60 NNE FCA 60 S CTB 30 ESE GTF 50
WSW GGW 55 N GGW ...CONT... 25 WSW INL 45 NNE BRD 60 SSW DLH 40 E
AUW 15 NE ARB 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 35 SE ECG 35 NNW EWN 15 ESE FLO
25 NW SAV 30 NNW JAX 35 E GNV 40 N MLB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS...

...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TODAY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER MN/WI...AND
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO IL/MO/OK. 
AIRMASS FROM SOUTHERN IND INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR IS
DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE A REGION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY
HIGH CAPE VALUES...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND FALLING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL AID IN A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF KY/TN BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. 
PLEASE REFER TO MCD NUMBER 910 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

REMNANT MCS PERSISTS THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF IND/OH.  MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO A RATHER STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS OVER
OH AND POSE ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF ACTIVITY NEAR OH RIVER MAY RE-INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS
IT MOVES INTO WESTERN WV.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST STORMS.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
MO/SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHERN IL...IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG.  MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTHWARD BY THAT
TIME...FOCUSING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION.  INITIAL
STORMS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST ACROSS MO/IL AND EASTERN KS
WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.  WESTWARD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO STRONGER CAP/WEAKER
FORCING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN OUTLOOK AREA BASED ON DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THIS AREA.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
WIDESPREAD MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY FROM THE TN VALLEY...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...INTO THE CAROLINAS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.  WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/GUYER.. 05/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.