[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191257
SWODY1
SPC AC 191256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
CGX 40 S SBN 40 ENE MIE 25 N UNI 35 SE PKB 35 NE SSU 20 SW ROA 45
SSW BLF 40 NNE TYS 45 W CSV 50 SW BNA 45 S MKL 50 NNE GLH 35 SSW PBF
TXK PRX ADM OKC END 20 WNW ICT 30 WNW EMP MKC 35 E IRK MMO 25 SSE
CGX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GPT 45 E MCB 30
NNE HEZ SHV ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SE P07 25 ESE BGS
55 SSW GAG GAG 35 SSW MHK 30 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO MKT 55 SSW FAR
55 NE MBG 15 SE 81V 45 NE DGW 55 W BFF LAR RKS 45 NE EKO 35 NW U31
30 ESE TVL 40 WSW TVL 55 NNE SAC 45 E RBL 40 SSW MHS ACV ...CONT...
45 NNW FCA 50 NE MSO 35 SE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ECG 35 ESE RWI
FLO 40 W SAV 25 SSE AYS 30 ESE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 20 N ELO 35
ENE AUW DTW 20 SE SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF ERN OK/KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MN/WI BORDER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IN ERN ND IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS IN IL THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD THROUGH
NRN MO/ERN KS...AND ACROSS NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH EWD FROM NRN IL ESEWD INTO VA.

...OHIO VALLEY...
BAND OF CONVECTION FROM NWRN IND INTO CENTRAL IL IS LOCATED WITHIN
AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS MAINTAINING DRY ELY
FLOW INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPES
FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AND STORM INTENSIFICATION FROM SRN IL EWD INTO
SRN IND/OH AND KY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME SEVERE HAIL.

...IL SWWD MO/AR/ERN KS/ERN OK...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT IN NRN/CENTRAL IL BY MID LATE AFTERNOON AS WEAK CAP
IS LIFTED BY INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND DEEP WLY FLOW ABOVE...INDICATIVE OF MAINLY A HAIL
AND WIND THREAT.

CONVECTION IN ERN OK THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL PULLS NEWD OUT OF THE AREA. WITH HEATING... THE
AIR MASS ACROSS MO/ERN KS/NWRN AR/ERN OK WILL BECOME STRONGLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 3000 J/KG. DYNAMICAL FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...BUT LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM OK CONVECTION AND
STATIONARY FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS IS ACROSS MO/AR/SRN IL WHERE WEAK VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW GLANCES AREA. THE STORMS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO
ORGANIZE STORMS INTO A SWD MOVING LINE ACROSS SRN MO INTO AR DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT AT THAT TIME.


STORMS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED ACROSS OK/KS AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE.

...ND...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP ND...WHERE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. SOME QUESTION
ABOUT INITIATION AS MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
BORDER...BUT ADDED LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN CASE A FEW
STORMS DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.