[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190558
SWODY1
SPC AC 190557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RFD
CGX FWA ZZV MGW 20 ESE EKN ROA PSK LOZ BWG 25 SSW CKV TUP 35 NNW GWO
PBF HOT PGO ADM OKC END ICT EMP MKC IRK 35 NW MLI RFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N ELO 35 ENE AUW
DTW 20 SE SBY ...CONT... 20 ESE ECG 35 ESE RWI FLO 40 W SAV 25 SSE
AYS 30 ESE GNV 40 N MLB ...CONT... 30 SW GPT 45 E MCB 30 NNE HEZ SHV
ACT 55 WNW AUS 45 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SE P07 25 ESE BGS 55 SSW GAG
GAG 30 NNE P28 30 SSW P35 30 WSW OTM ALO MKT 55 SSW FAR 55 NE MBG
81V 40 NNE DGW 55 W BFF LAR RKS 30 ESE MLD 25 NW EKO 40 NNW SVE ACV
...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 50 NE MSO 35 SE GTF 50 WSW GGW 55 N GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH VALLEY AND IL TO ERN
OK/SERN KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FCST TO MOVE NWD FROM NWRN MEX AND INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER AZ/NM...WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING FROM THERE NEWD
ACROSS MN.  AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN -- SHOULD TURN SEWD AND BECOME
INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW.  BY END OF
PERIOD...THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY. 
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION OF ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER OR VORTICITY MAX IS
LOW GIVEN GREAT DEGREE OF SPREAD IN 18/21 SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PROGS
AND IN DISAGREEMENT AMONG 19/00Z OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ETA/NGM
GUIDANCE.

AT SFC...CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER MN IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY SEWD
ALONG WARM FRONT...CROSSING NRN IL DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
SECONDARY FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FARTHER E OVER
OH/WV...GIVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE/OPEN-WAVE CHARACTER AND FASTER TRACK
OF TROUGH ALOFT.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN IA
TO NWRN MO TO SWRN KS SHOULD DRIFT SEWD ACROSS MO/OK THROUGH PERIOD.
 SRN PLAINS PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS
BUILD OVERHEAD.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH TRACK OF MIDWESTERN MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL AFFECT GEOMETRY OF MID-UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOWS OVER OUTLOOK
AREA...AND ALSO...LOW LEVEL PROPAGATIONAL INFLUENCES ON CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.  IN COMBINATION WITH DEPENDENCE ON MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INFLUENCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MODE AWAY FROM SFC
FRONT...BROAD CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS WARRANTED ATTM.

...IL TO MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND OZARKS REGION...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SFC LOW -- WITH
ADJOINING SEGMENTS OF BOTH COLD AND WARM FRONTS BEING MOST LIKELY
FOCI.  DISCRETE SUPERCELL POTENTIAL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE EARLY IN
CONVECTIVE CYCLE -- DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON -- SE OF SFC LOW. 
RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW NEAR WARM FRONT WILL ENLARGE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLY...GENERATING 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEARS 40-50 KT..AMIDST 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.

MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER IL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL EXTENDING SWD AFTER DARK TOWARD
OZARKS AND/OR WRN TN/NRN MS REGION.  GIVEN PREVAILING/INTENSIFYING
NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF MIDWESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SWLY LLJ
IN INFLOW REGION...ACTIVITY MAY BUILD WWD AS IT MOVES SWD OR SEWD. 
THIS WOULD RESULT IN NET SLY OR SSWLY MOTION TO PREFERRED INFLOW
REGION OF ANY MCS.  SUCH SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI MCS MOTION
VECTORS DERIVED FROM ETA WIND FCSTS...AND PROGGED 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAX ACROSS OZARK REGION BY END OF PERIOD.

SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER
INDIANA/OH/WV DURING DAY...MOVING ESEWD INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
REGION.  LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN FARTHER W
NEAR MAIN SFC LOW...HOWEVER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...LEWP/BOW FEATURES
AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE.

...SRN PLAINS...
SEVERE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CONDITIONAL AND TIED TO 
YET-UNDEVELOPED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ALONG/AHEAD OF RESIDUAL SFC
FRONT. ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER SERN KS MAY MOVE SEWD INTO NERN OK BY
19/12Z...PROVIDING ONE OR MORE OUTFLOW RELATED SOURCES OF LATER
LIFT...IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL ZONE ITSELF.  WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING
ALOFT AND FRONTOLYSIS UNDERWAY...WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STRONGER
CINH WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL OK SWWD ACROSS WRN TX.  THIS
SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO LATE AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING PERIOD NEAR FRONT AND DRYLINE.  DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS MAY SUPPORT SOME WIND/HAIL THREAT FOR A BRIEF INTERVAL.

..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.