[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190111
SWODY1
SPC AC 190109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM STC 30
S ALO 25 SSE FOD RWF 35 WNW AXN 35 NNE AXN STC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
STJ 25 SSW UIN VIH 30 SSE UMN TUL 40 SE GAG GAG 40 NE ICT 20 E STJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNE LFT
GWO PBF ADM ABI 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35
W GAG 50 SSE DDC FNB 20 ESE OMA 45 E SUX FSD HON ABR BIS P24 70 NNE
ISN ...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF
45 N EVV 50 ENE DYR 0A8 AUO TRI SSU 40 NNE CHO 35 SW NHK 45 E RWI
FLO 25 WNW AYS 45 NNW GNV 55 SSW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 35 SSE GTF
40 NW COD 20 SSE JAC 30 WNW MLD 20 WSW ENV 50 E U31 20 ENE NFL 35
ESE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 15 S MFR CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GON 25 WSW EEN
10 WNW EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SMALL PART OF MN/IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MO VALLEY TO NWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
MOST IMPORTANT MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED LOW --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ND/SD BORDER
JUNCTION.  THIS LOW IS FCST TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS MN TOWARD
NWRN WI AND WRN LS OVERNIGHT...AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES
OZARK PLATEAU. PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN
ND...WILL FOLLOW UPPER LOW INTO MN AS COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD
OVER IA/NWRN MO/KS AND SWD ACROSS ERN HIGH PLAINS.  DRYLINE
INTERSECTS FRONT OVER NWRN OK AND EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX.


...S-CENTRAL PLAINS TO KC/TOP AREAS...
REF WW 287 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST
INFORMATION.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.  MOST FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT SWWD
ALONG SFC FRONT IS WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHILE MIXED-LAYER
BUOYANCY REMAINS MAXIMIZED.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH 04Z AND STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL.  THOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL ABSOLUTE
SPEEDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENHANCED
LOCALLY THROUGH DISCRETE PROPAGATIONAL EFFECTS.  GREATEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SEWD
TONIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE. MCS MAY
EVOLVE FROM ONGOING AND FUTURE NERN KS CONVECTION AND TRANSLATE EWD
WHILE BACKBUILDING...RESULTING IN NET/SLOW SEWD SHIFT.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP SWWD
ALONG FRONT/DRYLINE AS FAR AS SW OK.  HOWEVER....PROBABILITIES
DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF STRONGER CAPPING AND MORE
SHORT-LIVED/ISOLATED NATURE OF WIND/HAIL THREAT.


...UPPER MIDWEST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
INVOF SFC FRONT.  INFLOW SHOULD BE FROM NARROW N-S CORRIDOR OF
FAVORABLE MOISTURE BETWEEN FRONT AND RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
OVER ERN IA/MN.  RECENT FUNNEL/TORNADO REPORTS HAVE OCCURRED IN
AREAS OF ENHANCED STRETCHING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH VERTICAL
CIRCULATIONS STRONGLY TIED TO DIABATIC HEATING...ALONG WITH AROUND
100 J/KG SFC-3 KM AGL CAPE.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY FROM NOW ON...THOUGH SOME CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.